Paul Articulates - The stretch run

Well, here we go.  There are now 32 games remaining in the regular season.  The once-dominant New York Mets are seven full games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and hold an uncomfortable 1.5 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card berth.

The Mets are about to embark on a killer schedule – three games against the Phillies, then four against the resurgent Marlins.  That closes August.  September begins with a road trip through Detroit, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia.  Then the Rangers, Padres, Nats, and Cubs visit Citi Field.  All except the Nationals have winning records and are in playoff contention.

No one else has a tough run like this in front of them, although Cincinnati has a gauntlet to run.  This will clearly be a defining period for the Mets, because they will either come through this stretch with renewed confidence having beaten many of the best teams in baseball this season or they will have plummeted out of playoff contention in a year where expectations were high and the payroll was higher.

What do you think of their chances?  Here are several things I have considered as I restlessly toss and turn between dreams and nightmares about the Mets.

1) Starting pitching has not delivered as they should have through the last two months, but there have been some glimmers of hope.  Nolan McLean may have re-energized the staff by coming in and recording seven innings with only two earned runs in his first MLB start.  The next day, Clay Holmes pitched into the seventh inning giving up only two earned runs – this was his first foray into that inning in as long as I can remember.  David Peterson, who had been the only starter delivering quality starts, almost had another, but lost his way in the sixth with walks and took a difficult loss.  If Senga and Manaea get the message and start pitching with the ability we know they have, this rotation can do the job and then hand it to a bullpen that can hold a lead if they are not tired.

2) Relief pitching looks very good on paper.  We have two solid lefties in Soto and Raley, two very capable closers in Diaz and Helsley, and a handful of others that can get outs in between.  The problem has been a lack of consistent performance.  Who would have guessed that Ryan Helsley would get hit so hard recently while still throwing 100mph gas?  My guess is that he is tipping his pitches because there have been way too many balls squared up that usually end up in a catcher’s mitt.  Tyler Rogers has also been hit harder recently than his numbers would suggest.  I don’t know if it is fatigue or a flawed approach to the batters, but Reid Garrett is suffering from the same problem.  This is where Jeremy Hefner earns his keep – make the necessary adjustments to get these guys humming and the Mets should be able to win many low-scoring games.

3) The batting has been great lately.  Francisco Lindor is out of his slump, Soto continues to get on base, and the kids at the bottom of the lineup are contributing.  Pete Alonso still looks a little off at the plate, but he has 103 RBI already, so I think he will continue to knock them in.  Starling Marte is crushing it, and I would love to see him in the lineup more consistently, but Carlos Mendoza seems intent on keeping him healthy.  A healthy Marte is a very good thing.

4) The defense scares me.  This is where it can all unravel.  I think that it was a bad idea to acquire Cedric Mullins at the trade deadline.  He is a .240 hitter with one great season four years behind him.  He is an adequate center fielder, but he is playing in front of Tyrone Taylor who is an exceptional center fielder with a .235 career average.  Taylor covers a lot of ground in center field which makes up for Soto’s lack of range and jump.  When you put Mullins next to Soto in the regular lineup, the Mets become vulnerable to balls in the gap.  Yesterday’s loss to the Braves could have been avoided with Taylor in center because he would have gotten to the ball that dropped in for the two-run single that won the game for Atlanta.  In the infield, the Vientos-Baty-Mauricio experiment needs to end.  Baty can play the position, so play him.  I believe that Mauricio will be special someday, but he continues to prove that he is not there yet.

This upcoming stretch of games will be the defining moment for the season.  I think the pitching will do well, because there are signs that they can turn the corner.  The resurgent bats that we saw against the Braves’ taxi squad are going to have to continue momentum against a much better grade of pitching.  I don’t expect to see 21 hits in any game over the next month, but if the offense can produce 5 runs/game this team can win its way into the playoffs.  But Mendoza can’t continue to experiment with the defense.  He needs to put a less variable team in the field with Taylor in center, Baty at third, McNeil at second, and get Nimmo back into the lineup as soon as possible.  Vientos has hit his way into the daily DH spot.