Morning Thoughts
I hinted about this in comments on last Sunday Observations post... the ugliness needed in 2026 so you have a clean, controlled, and possible under the luxury tax team going forward.
But let's first take the positive road
and discuss what STARS I would keep, at a premium cost, and what “team
controlled” players I would have on my 2027 26-man roster.
First, the stars:
1B Pete Alonso – yeah, I know, he’s
back in the middle of one of his (too often) slumps, but I checked as I was
writing this and he is currently ranked THIRD IN RBIs IN THE LEAGUE. That’s the
league, as in the whole league. And that ain’t thirty-third. It’s third. I’ll
take this playing first every time and why not pay someone who loves being a
Met? Give him $35mil for five years. He’s a
star plus you put this position to bed until the next decade.
SS Francisco Lindor – In another of his
insane hot finishes. He’s gonna be around through 2031 at an AAV of $34.1mil. Embrace your unnamed Captain.
RF Juan Soto - $51mil
AAV
through 2039. Next…
CL Edwin Diaz - $20.4mil AAV through 2028,
but he has an opt out at the end of this season, which he most probably is
going to execute since he is currently back at the top of his game. Pay him $25mil
a
year for five years. He may not be your closer in the last couple of years of
this contract, but he will still be a worthy part of your pen.
So…
Four stars at $145,000,000
Now, the new breed:
C Francisco Alvarez – Thumbs aside, once
Frankie figures out how to stop hurting himself, he WILL establish himself as a
productive starter going forward until something better comes along. I no
longer think he is going to be the end-all, but he will be a productive bat.
C "Pick-em" - could be Hayden Senger. Or Kevin Parada. Or even Chris Suero. Any of the three
would fit in just fine as backup for "The Thumb".
2B/CF Jett Williams – easily my future
second baseman and a pretty decent backup outfielder to boot.
3B/2B Brett Baty – I have reapplied to
the Baty Fan Club and I have him now placed as my starter on third. Also adds
versatility as a backup at second.
LF/CF AJ Ewing – you are just gonna
love this guy leading off and becoming one of the steal leaders in the league.
Can flip-flop positions with the next guy in center.
CF/LF/RF Carson Benge – I think Benge is
going to be a real star in this game. Does everything well.
OF Nick Morabito – Soto, Benge, and Ewing
are in the way of Nick being a starter, but I would play him as often as I
could as the the first backup in the outfield,
LHDH Ryan Clifford - a little bit of a
Swiss army knife. A perfect backup at
first, adequate backup in the corner outfield positions, and huge power against
RHP.
RHDH Mark Vientos – Currently producing
only a -0.4-WAR, but capable of 25-30 home run seasons. He and Clifford could
combine for some awesome power numbers coming from the DH position.
SP Jonah Tong – this is easy… Tong
will be my SP1 by now. Probably sometime in 2026. It’s sad that I will die of
old age before I can see the Mets retire his number someday.
SP Nolan McLean – really, another easy
decision. McLean is on the path of becoming the 2027 SP2.
SP/RP Christian Scott – Scott is going to be
on this team. I just aren’t sure in what a capacity. My money is on him
returning to be a productive member of the rotation, but, he that’s not
achievable, he will be in the pen.
SP/RP Jack Wenninger – like Scott, his
future role is undefined right now. I think he’s an active candidate for the
SP5 slot.
RP Tylor Megill - Not stuck. Megill will exclusively be
in my pen as along man. Period.
RP Dylan Ross – To me, Ross will some
day become the Mets closer when Diaz slows down. Until then, a perfect 8th
inning speed demon.
RP Douglas Orellana – someone I have touted
for years. I look for him to have a banner year in 2026 at Syracuse and then on
to my pen in 2027.
RP Jonathan Santucci – Lastly, another swing starter/reliever who I would start him off in my pen.
This is 18 in some stage of team-controlled
stats, be it early on or in the late stages of their ARB years. Let’s round it
off and say they average one mil salary each. That’s $18,000,000 to add to $145,000.00
you spent on your four stars… you now have:
21 members of your 26-man: $ 163,000,000
FOUR more to be decided. A utility
infielder... a starter… and two more relievers.
And there are TWO players I don’t know
what to do with right now…
SP/RP/?P Brandon Sproat – really putting up
some topsy-turvy stat lines lately, Especially the last one. I will revisit
this by the end of the season to see if this very talented pitcher can straighten
his arse up.
SP David Peterson – David will be a free
agent in 2027. He also will be 31/years old. I have to think about this one.
Now for Eddie's Ugliness.
Here are the players that are still
under contract in 2027 and beyond. ALL have to be either traded or released.
Some trades may result in partial amounts of monies owed being paid by the new
teams, but the Mets have to be ready to eat all of this if they want to truly
build a manageable team that can also compete.
They are:
LF Brandon Nimmo – the biggest meal. Nimmo
has $20.5mil/yr. coming to him through 2030. For those of you that majored in
Sports Management, that’s $20.5mil x 4 = $82,000,000.00.
2B/CF Jeff McNeil – club can opt out
after the 2026 season. I would.
SP Kodai Senga – you have to judge his
2027 value vs. Tong. One year left at $15,000,000
SP Sean Manaea – also have to judge
his 2027 value vs. McLean. Only one year left at $22,009,000.
SP Clay Holmes – also have to judge
his 2027 value vs. either Sproat or Scott. One year left at $12,667,000
Total monies that could be eaten: $131,676,000.
But you still have $82,676.000 more in
2026 salaries here if you truly want to be free of this. That would result in a
total ugly meal of:
$ 214,352,000
Such a deal. Would Steve do this?
Hell
no. But he may buy the $131,676,000 reduction that clears the runway in 2027.
TJStats - MLB
Top 100 Prospects: August 2025
11) Carson Benge - OF – NYM
The Good
Benge has
solidified himself as one of the most complete prospects in MiLB. None of these
tools are exceptional, yet they all grade out at least average to make him one
of the safest bets to be an MLB regular, especially as a CF.
The Bad
His spray
tendencies and flatter bat path will likely limit his power upside.
The 9 best starters still in Triple A
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6568174/2025/08/22/triple-a-starters-bubba-chandler-outlooks/
Brandon Sproat, RHP,
New York Mets
Is Sproat being passed by Tong on the Mets’ depth chart
like Nolan McLean just did? If he is, it’s because of the quality of the
fastballs. All three of his breaking balls — a sweeper, curveball and slider —
are positives by stuff, and he commands them well enough to make them
above-average pitches. His sinker is slightly above-average by stuff and he
commands it well. But the four-seam doesn’t rate well in any facet other than
velocity, and that leaves him short of a fastball to use against lefties, with
below-average command to boot. Can he rely on the velocity, shape be damned?
That seems to be the plan so far, as he’s throwing the 88 Stuff+ four-seam to
lefties in Triple A right now. And that league is hitting over .300 against the
pitch.
The bet here is that Sproat won’t crack the Mets’ roster
this year as he works on refining his fastball mix and command — especially
since he doesn’t have a roster spot waiting for him.
Thomas Nestico from TJStats tjstats@substack.com
Jonah
Tong - NYM
Jonah Tong has lit the world on fire with strikeouts this
season with an MiLB leading 179 K on the heels of his high riding fastball and
killer changeup. The most apparent aspect of Tong’s profile is his unorthodox
delivery which comes with a cross-bodied stride and an over-the-top slot. Not
only is this a distinct angle that batters are not typically used to seeing,
Tong does an effective job at concealing the ball until it is released out of
his hand.
Tong’s fastball is his bread-and-butter thanks to its
~19" iVB while sitting 94-96 MPH, which is +2 MPH harder than in 2024. His
smaller stature and above-average extension allow him to get down to a ~6 ft
vertical release point. Tong’s changeup is the most notable development this
season and has boosted him to AAA after an utter dominant showing AA. The
offering has an ideal combination of velocity and vertical separation from his
fastball which allows to stump opposing batters.
The next step for Tong to thrust himself into the Mets
rotation is better command and more confidence in his breaking balls. He has
essentially operated as a 2-pitch pitcher this season, and while it has been a
resounding success, he will need more weapons in order to tackle MLB lineups.
His 2nd AAA start was more encouraging from a developmental standpoint as he
trusted his full arsenal and flashed better control. Tong is one of the best
pitching prospects in baseball, and the results back it up. He might not join
the Mets as a starter right now, but he has the tools to be a wicked bullpen
piece down the stretch.
Isaac Groffman isaacgrofman@substack.com
Jonah
Tong’s Changeup
Transformation: How a Simple Seam Orientation Shift Created a Plus Pitch
Jonah Tong’s changeup has quietly become one of the most
improved pitches in the Mets system. A longtime concern around him has been the
lack of arsenal depth, but since his call-up to Triple-A, where we finally got
Statcast data on him for the first time since he was 20, the conversation has
shifted. Once labeled as a one-pitch arm with a great fastball, Tong is now
being talked about as a legitimate two-pitch pitcher with a fastball–changeup
combo.
In his Triple-A stint, Tong’s changeup is showing nearly
eight more inches of depth, five more inches of run, and he’s throwing it about
two miles per hour harder. What makes this fascinating is that the spin axis
hasn’t changed since 2024. His arm angle and release height are the same. On
paper, you’d expect the movement profile to remain steady.
So how did he unlock all that extra movement without
changing much at all?
The Grip Change
On the Meet at the Apple podcast, Tong described the
tweak in detail. He didn’t abandon his signature Vulcan grip. Instead, he
simply shifted where he positioned it on the baseball, moving from a four-seam
orientation to a two-seam orientation.
This subtle shift changed the way the seams interacted
with the air, unlocking seam-shifted wake effects that weren’t present before.
Four-seam CH (left): Relies heavily on pronation to
generate movement. Tong, like many pitchers, likely doesn’t pronate
particularly well, which limited the pitch’s effectiveness.
Two-seam CH (right): Allows him to “cut” the ball
slightly, something he already does well with his fastball, and lets the seams
take over. The result is additional movement from seam-shifted wake without
requiring him to force pronation.
Why It Matters
For a pitcher like Tong, who already has a strong
fastball foundation, the improved changeup gives him a real weapon against
opposite-handed hitters. By pairing natural seam effects with a grip that
better suits his mechanics, he’s not only added depth and run but also
disguised the pitch more effectively by maintaining the same spin axis.
It’s a perfect example of how small adjustments,
sometimes as simple as moving your fingers a fraction of an inch, can unlock
dramatic results.
Injury Update –
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6573416/2025/08/25/this-week-in-mets-where-must-mets-improve/
Injury updates
Francisco
Alvarez UCL sprain in right thumb September
Jesse
Winker Lower back inflammation September
Tylor
Megill Right elbow sprain September
Jose
Siri Fractured left tibia September
Griffin
Canning Ruptured left Achilles 2026
A.J.
Minter Left lat strain 2026
Danny
Young Tommy John surgery 2026
Max
Kranick Elbow surgery 2026
Christian
Scott Tommy John surgery 2026
Drew
Smith Tommy John surgery 2026
Nick
Madrigal Left shoulder fracture 2026
Dedniel
Núñez Tommy John surgery 2027
Frankie
Montas Right elbow UCL injury 2027
Francisco
Alvarez will be
re-evaluated this week after the inflammation in his right thumb has
sufficiently subsided to see if he can go on a rehab assignment and actually
swing the bat despite the torn ligament in that thumb. Players have played
through that injury before; they don’t remember the experience fondly.
Things escalated quickly for Frankie Montas, who has a “significant” UCL injury that sounds like it’s headed for
surgery that would jeopardize the entirety of his 2026 season. Montas’ trip to
the IL simplifies some roster machinations for this year’s Mets, but losing him
as even an option for 2026 or modest eat-most-of-the-money trade bait this
winter would hurt.
Jose
Siri should begin a rehab
assignment this week, which would make him an option for the big-league club in
mid-September.
Jesse
Winker still hasn’t
started baseball activities. It’s getting tougher to envision a return for
Winker this season.
Mets Player Development @MetsPlayerDev
John
Bay went on an absolute
TEAR!
He is the Mets Minor League Player of the Week
Mets Player Development @MetsPlayerDev
R.J.
Gordon fired a scoreless
outing on Wednesday, earning him the @Mets Minor League Pitcher of the Week!
How A Pair Of Top 10 Mets Prospects Highlight A Quirk In 40-Man Roster Decisions
Mets Righthander Jonah
Tong and center fielder Nick Morabito spent most of this season as teammates with Double-A Binghamton. Both
players were drafted out of high school in 2022—Tong in the seventh round and
Morabito in the compensatory second round after Noah Syndergaard signed with
the Angels as a free agent.
Both Tong and Morabito were 19 years old when drafted and
signed by the Mets. Morabito, however, must be added to the 40-man roster after
this season—a year earlier than Tong—or else be subject to selection in the
Rule 5 draft.
Why is that?
The answer has to do with the players’ birth dates. Both
were born in 2003, but Morabito was born on May 7 while Tong was June 19. That
means they slot in on opposing sides of the June 5 cutoff date that determines
player age for Rule 5 draft purposes.
Forty-three days in 2003 is all that separates the two
players by birth date, but it translates to a full season of Rule 5 draft
exemption.
GO TO LINK FOR FULL STORY
21 comments:
Mack, I absolutely love this. I had to go back and check the article because I thought this was going to be about 2026. I was bewildered as to how all these rookies would make the team.
Back to reality, this goes right in line with my way of thinking. With McNeil and Montas gone I would hope we are able to trade away several of the players without eating too much salary.
Excellent analysis, as usual! Only a few points I disagree with:
Peterson is our current ACE, and unless he regresses next year he's a keeper. 31 is not "old".
Nimmo is locked in for too many years to be released. Possible trade candidate, but otherwise a keeper.
McNeil is arguably the MVU (Utilitymanl around. No need to move him unless his demands are too high.
On another note, Bay is impressing. Hopefully he will be better than the other Bay in Mets history.
If you don't want to commit to Peterson long term, he will be highly tradable.
Thank you
I'm sure some.money could be saved, but Steve can afford this.
All monies lost could be paid in full and add to 2026 only
Points taken
But that's your plan.
Yes, mine is severe
True
I just need to see how he finishes the season before I add him
Someday in the future long after I'm long gone Mr. Sterns will write a book about all the WS teams he put together which would be great except I hope he includes the WTF "additions" of Montas Mullins and Siri in 2025 to balance things out a bit. Also can we send Brazoban to anywhere except Citi field please!
You are the man Mack,
I agree with 99% ...
Sterns grew up in the small markets and what do they do in those markets, Get ride of bad contracts.
Nimmo is the hardest but highest priority because he can still perform.
I dont understand why we don't sell and acquire at the deadlines. Nimmo may have been one of the highest values bats available in this deadline. Would it be crazy to trade him? Would he hurt the clubhouse? Maybe but being bold is not for the weak.
That's passed. he is owed 82 million, pay 22 save 60. Heck if your really bold you pay his entire 2026 salary making it easy to for a team figure the finances down the road.
McNeill should be a easy trade candidate, if Jett is ready then McNeill is replaced.
BE BOLD STERN... you already don't care what people say about you....
Nimmo is a true leader. After the game, after he professionally laced a fierce 102 MPH fireball for the game winning hit, he lauded Brett Baty for fighting through his at bats with against Duran and winning the AB with a bloop single. He spent 20-30 seconds talking Baty up, which had to be HUGE to Baty: you’re one of us, and you will have a fine career. Then, he exhorted the fans to keep coming to fire up the players. WOW.
Add in 71 RBIs in 465 at bats…hard to say good bye to that.
I would move on from < 5 innings Manaea, and Senga. Let’s see what Tong does. Youth movement in 2026.
I think Jon Santucci is CLOSE. By MID-2026.
I think Benge will adjust and add power - just as Nimmo has.
I watched Vientos’ RBI single at bats with. I think he got my repeated message….he was AGGRESSIVE. He swung at every strike. I was thrilled.
Montas will never pitch for the Mets again. He will however get paid.
Clifford has just 4 weeks and the AFL(?) to persuade the Mets he can begin to replace Pete. Pete likely needs to stay. Move the fences in for him.
Back to Clifford: he played in two pitchers’ parks in Bingo and Coney, now we start to see what he can do in a normal park.
Senger to back up Alvarez early if they are convinced Parada can hit above .200 in the bigs by mid-2026. Parada should be promoted to AAA right after the AA playoffs.
RJ Gordon is10-2. How about that?
Any hitters who have a real chance to play for the Mets early in 2026 should go to the AFL again, even if they went once before. Parada stunk when he went. He needs at bats to make his case for 2026.
He may never be # 50, Cal Raleigh, but he can be good.
Parada, Williams, Clifford, Benge, Reimer - all to the AFL if they can send 5 hitters. Pete had his huge 2018 AA/AAA season, but went toteAFL, because he was hungry and teardown the door - and he did.
Mack -
For the most part, I am in agreement with you.
With all his warts, Alonso is a productive 1st baseman. I would look at 4 years at just over $25 with options. Say he may not age well.
I agree with Tom in that Nimmo adds to the clubhouse. I hate the contract but I love the player. I see him as Cap't #3. That would make Mirabito the add man out.
Reimer has my interest as a bat off the bench that would take Morabito's place on the roster. Granted, he does not have the glove but he plays all over the field.
As you stated above, my team. Bottom line, the transition to the 2027 team is starting now with the addition of McLain and Tong.
You and I will pass with STILL only two WS rings
Bank on it
How many players do the Mets have that can play all OF positions and practically all infield positions except for catcher?. Not only that, but plays them at a ML level?. Only one Jeff McNeil. I would keep him over Nimmo anytime.
I don't see a reason to get rid of Peterson.
I know that Diaz has a great arm and is pitching lights out right now but if he doesn't learn how to hold players, I would let him walk. He can't just walk a batter and turn it into a triple, he just can not.
I'm sticking to my plan no matter how cruel it is
I understand your thoughts on Nimmo
But you only have THREE slots for starting outfield
Soto has one
The Mets will have FOUR legitimate outfielders ready to step in
I haven't got rid of Peterson yet
I don’t see how it’s possible to get rid of Nimmo. You’d likely need to pay off half his salary to even move him, much less get any value in return, and in truth, he’s worth more to this team, both on the field and in the clubhouse than the $10m per you’d likely save. Also, if McNeil has another season in ‘26 like he’s having in ‘25 - an above league-average OPS every single month of the season, in a lineup that is notoriously hot and cold, and can still play at least four positions adequately - then I definitely exercise his ‘26 option, even if I didn’t intend to start him every day. Pete is coming back. I’d bet anything on it. He’s having his best offensive season maybe ever, he’s a lifetime Met who wants to be here, and is beloved by the fan base. Say 4/$125 or 5/$140. Hope that Clifford has a monster year in AAA next season at 23 yrs old and make him the centerpiece of a trade package.
I like Mack's idea better. You either go all in or not.
Remember he's talking about 2027 team. McNeil and Montas will be gone. Manaea and Senga will have one more year left. Much more tradable. Nimmo is the only tough one. If you add 5m per year he would be tradable.
If Benge, Williams and Ewing are future Mets, space will be needed. Start with Nimmo and....
I did an article on the Nimmo contract months ago. It (the contract) essentially is 8 years, straight line, $20 million per.
If it was done to realistically match age-related decline expectations, over 8 age-adjusted years, he would have been instead paid something like $34 MM year 1, $30 MM year 2, $25 MM year 3, $22 MM year 4, $18 MM year 5; $14 million year 6; $10 MM year 7; $7 MM year 8. That adds up to $160 MM.
After this year, he is owed roughly $100 million for 5 years. By my calculation, it really should be $49 MM. So, to move him, the Mets would have to eat $51 MM. They knew that when they did the contract.
So, if Nimmo was traded at next year’s trade deadline, they would likely have to eat half of what is left.
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