MACK - MY Wednesday Observation - Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean, Jack Wenninger, Cedrick Mullins, New Bullpen, Ryan Helsley

 

Morning Thoughts

 

It’s hard for me to accept Frankie Montas being part of this rotation anymore. Carlos Mendoza said on Monday that he would definitely pitch in his next slot, but they may use a reliever to get things going. That usually means one inning, two max. Does this mean Montas has been removed from the rotation? Hell no. All this is, pardon the expression, putting lipstick on a pig.

Am I to believe that Steve Cohen sits down with David Stearns and decides that making a run for the pennant with the best your system can offer is second to saving face for this contract… or feel they can’t afford to eat it? Can’t afford? Go look at the proposed construction costs for his soon to be New Sin City next to the field. Even the drug dealers, pimps, and hookers on Roosevelt Avenue are excited about this.

So, we, as writers and fans have to take one in the throat every sixth game during this ride down a razor blade nighty again the Phillies.

This definitely gives new meaning to the old Mets cry… amazing.

 

I was going to add a paragraph on the “locks” on this team. They included both starters Kodai Senga and Sean Montas and the perfect pitching that recently arrived speed baller Ryan Helsley has displayed. Well, this paragraph went to shit this past week. I’m not saying they have all turned into dog meat, but what’s going on in August so far this month makes it hard to say nice things about these guys.

Have I given up on this team this year? Hell no. Have I given up on how it has been constructed? Definitely not. In fact, I love what David Stearns did during the trading period. But all this positive crap ends if you ask me if I like how the Mets brass execute. In fact, it’s getting kind of embarrassing. 

Pitch Profiler                     @pitchprofiler

NO MOMENT IS TOO BIG FOR EDWIN

Just Baseball – Updated Top 100 Prospects – 7-29

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/#entry-112912

88. Brandon Sproat – RHP – New York Mets

Height/Weight: 6’3″, 210 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 2nd Round (56) – NYM (2023) | ETA: 2025

FASTBALL            Slider    CURVEBALL        CHANGEUP        COMMAND        FV

55/60     45/55     50/50     50/60     40/45     50

Drafted by the Mets twice, (90th overall in 2022), it was dazzling stuff that made Sproat a first round candidate as the 2023 draft approached, however below average command dropped him to the second round. Sproat exploded in 2024, looking like one of the more exciting pitching prospects in baseball before his stuff and command regressed in Triple-A clouding his outlook some for the time being.Arsenal

At his best, Sproat boasts three above average offerings with his fastball and changeup being plus. Featuring a four-seamer and two-seamer at the University of Florida, Sproat has since cut down his usage of the latter in favor of his four-seam fastball with improved ride in the upper 90s. He lost some of that ride with the Triple-A baseball as his spin rate dropped below 2,000 RPM. As a result, he has leaned back into the two-seamer to try to get more ground balls given the dip in whiff within the zone on the four seamer. 

His sweeper has lost nearly 200 RPM too, lacking the bite that it had at Double-A in 2024 while his power changeup at 88-92 mph has become firmer after it was a devastating put-away pitch to both lefties and righties in 2024.

There’s likely going to be some continued trial and error for Sproat at Triple-A as he works to become accustomed to the different baseball which clearly affected the quality of his stuff and command, but it is still a head scratcher given how impressive the stuff was in 2024.

Outlook

Stuff wasn’t an issue for Sproat, but he emerged in 2024 with a more complete arsenal. To see essentially every offering back up is concerning as command has always come secondary for the right-hander. He has looked more the part of a ground ball pitcher who slots into the back of a rotation in Triple-A which is a far cry from the middle-rotation upside he flashed at High-A and Double-A. It’s somewhat of a wait and see thing for Sproat as he tries to get right.

Mets Analytics                  @MetsAnalytics

Could Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean be in the majors soon, given starting rotation struggles and lack of a trade?

Sproat fits the Hefner formula - a ground ball wizard who refuses to allow hard contact in the air. He loves horizontal movement and relies on his filthy sweeper

 

                Me?

                I think the Mets next move will be Phil Blackburn until Tyler Megill is ready. 

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

5. Jack Wenninger

FF: 45/55 | CH: 60/60 | SL: 45/45 | CB: 50/55 | Control: 50/50 | Arsenal: 55/60 | Uniqueness: 55 | FV: 50 

Wenninger has turned heads this season posting a 2.90 ERA at high A Brookltn. He currently shows four distinct pitch shapes and has room to add at least a sweeper, sinker, and true cutter. There have been reports of a velocity bump, and while his measured shape isn't ideal, around 17 inches of IVB from a higher release, the steep angle of approach could add deception, boosting his uniqueness score. Overall, a 50 FV seems fair: he clearly has the makings of an MLB-quality arsenal, and as his velocity climbs, so too does his ceiling as a potential rotation piece.

Cedric Mullins

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mets-trade-for-cedric-mullins-nl-east-frontrunners-upgrade-outfield-in-trade-with-orioles/

Mullins, 30, has batted .229/.305/.433 (104 OPS+) for the Orioles this season with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 91 games. Advanced metrics are mixed on Mullins' defense in center field this season. Statcast's Outs Above Averages pegs him as a plus in center, while Defensive Runs Saved evaluates him as the worst defensive center fielder in MLB this season. For his career, Mullins has an OPS+ of 107 and a WAR of 15.4 across parts of eight big-league seasons, all with the Orioles. In 2021, Mullins earned his lone All-Star selection and also won his first and only Silver Slugger award.

For 2025, Mullins is owed the balance of an $8.73 million salary, and he's eligible for free agency this coming offseason. Prior to this trade, Mullins had spent his entire professional career with the Orioles, who first drafted him in the 13th round of the 2015 MLB Draft out of Campbell University.

The Mets have primarily relied on Tyrone Taylor since Jose Siri broke his leg in early April. While Taylor's defense has carried so far, the bat has left a lot to be desired (60 OPS+) and there's plenty of room for improvement at that position.

  

What are the Mets getting for their bullpen?

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mets-super-bullpen-trades-helsley-rogers-soto/

Ryan Helsley is the biggest move that President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has made since the offseason, as the two-time All-Star led MLB in saves last season (49).

His claim to fame is his blazing fastball, which is routinely among the hardest in the game,  averaging 99.3 mph on the radar gun. This, coupled with a slider that has created a 45.6% whiff rate in 2025, has helped Helsley pitch to a 3.00 ERA. Overall, his 34.3% chase rate ranks in the 94th percentile leaguewide.

This season, Helsley has not gotten the mileage out of his fastball that he typically does. Opponents are batting .406 against his heater, but just .092 against his slider. He uses those two pitches over 90% of the time, but also will mix in a curveball and cutter.

Since the start of 2022, Helsley has gone 103-for-121 (85%) in saves. His 103 saves rank fifth in baseball over that timeframe. In that span, the 30-year-old has posted at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings in each season.

The move signals the Mets’ push for a World Series this year. Helsley is due to hit the open market at the end of the season and will likely look to play somewhere where he can be the closer. As long as Diaz is in Queens, Helsley will be the set-up man to Diaz, who has a player option after 2025.

Tyler Rogers is a strong weapon in his own right. The 34-year-old submarining reliever has become one of the most consistent relievers in the game. Across his seven-year career, Rogers owns an ERA of 2.79 and has a rubber arm. Due to his -60º arm angle, Rogers’ pitches seem to rise, creating an illusion that is difficult for hitters to pick up.

His unorthodox delivery gives Rogers the ability to miss barrels while not lighting up the radar gun. At just 83.3 mph, his average fastball velocity ranks in the 1st percentile, while his 2.1% barrel rate is in the 100th percentile.

Rogers has led the league in appearances three times and is on track to do the same this year, already entering 53 games this season. He is always around the plate, as maybe the most important stat is his four walks in 50 innings of the year.

Additionally, he has allowed just three longballs, helping him produce an ERA of 1.80.

Between Helsley’s high velocity and Rogers’ unorthodox stuff, the two additions will give New York a couple of differing looks to what they already have at the back of games.

On a team that has struggled to get much consistency from their bullpen outside of their closer, Stearns and Co. have now built a strong bridge to Diaz.

Ryan Helsley

Lance Brozdowski                            lancebroz@substack.com

Mets Ryan Helsley’s four-seam location has drifted this year compared to last, particularly to right-handed hitters (see below). His underlying stats don’t look dramatically different than last season, but his righty results show some change. xFIP has jumped from 3.15 to 4.35, and his K-BB is down from 21% to 14%. I would guess this is at least partially due to the fastball location being more up and inside. It seems like a more logical place to put the pitch, but his zone miss on the pitch to righties this season has fallen from 19% to 13% (19% is average), and the xwOBA on contact has jumped from .266 to .417 (.331 is average). 

His slider has still been mostly unhittable. I think the Mets are just betting on a very good pitcher, curious if they make any changes to usage in particular, like a lean toward more slider. A more bold angle would be to push the cutter he flashed early in the year and then hasn’t thrown since early May.