Paul Articulates – Ace in the hole?

The New York Mets continue to struggle with their starting pitching.  Other than David Peterson, who goes deep into the game on almost every start, there is no one in the starting rotation that has been able to produce length.  This has had an adverse impact on the bullpen, who started strong, got worn out, then got re-made at the trade deadline out of necessity.

Now, down the playoff stretch, the team is faced with the prospect of wearing out another set of bullpen arms.  Last night was another typical 5.0 inning start, followed by three one-inning arms.

The team went through a horrendous losing streak recently in which they struggled to score, and when it was left to the pen to pitch flawlessly the result was predictable – they were not flawless and the Mets didn’t win many games, at one point losing 14 of 17.

Back in early May, I wrote a piece about whether Kodai Senga was a legitimate Ace on this team.  At that point he was pitching like one, leading the NL in ERA and giving the team a chance to win every outing.  

This doesn’t seem to be the case anymore.  Since returning from injury, Senga has not been as sharp, and can’t seem to get through more than five innings in his starts.  See the chart below.  He averages 5.23 innings per game, and although we expected shorter outings after his return from injury, it appears that he will level off at around the same place again.

This is a real cause for concern, especially because he is not pitching clean innings.  Wednesday was an example – Senga’s line was 5.0 IP, 6H, 4ER, 2BB against a team with a .405 winning percentage.  Our “Ace” has fallen into a deep hole and can’t get out.

Sean Manaea has also returned from injury, and also struggled to increase his innings output to anywhere near a reasonable amount that would de-stress the pen. His average so far is 4.57 innings/game, although he seems to have had a better trend until a rough outing caused him to get pulled for performance, not for concern about how many pitches his arm can handle.

Clay Holmes has proven that he can be an effective starting pitcher, but since he is beyond his innings total for any previous season, one could expect that he will not be pushed deeper.  As it is, he has only averaged 5.24 innings/game so far.

I could go on, but you know how this story goes.  The only thing that has not been written is the ending.  It is up to the Mets’ front office and development staff to influence that ending.  So what can they do?

1) We all saw what happened when Nolan McLean was called up.  He not only pitched deep into the game, but infused some life into the team with his energy and his remarkable behind-the-back double play.  The move to promote McLean also sent Frankie Montas to the bullpen – a long arm that can pitch multiple innings when needed.  So when a starter goes 5, send in Montas for 3 and then close with whichever power arm fits best.

 2) Tylor Megill is almost ready, and when he is there are two possible options – one is to have him become the #4 starter and the other is to have him play the same role as Montas – a long inning reliever that eats innings left on the table by our starters.  If both Peterson and McLean provide deep outings, then the team would only need long relief on the other three days at most.

3) Since Senga became a Met, there has been talk of a six starter rotation.  The return of Megill and the promotion of McLean makes this possible.  Philadelphia has already done it.  The big caveat here is that you can’t pull starters after 5.0 innings in a six man rotation, because there just won’t be enough arms left in the bullpen to fill.  A sixth starter means one less reliever.

 4) Brandon Sproat has learned a lot about pitching during his struggles over the last season and a half.  He has re-surfaced as a better pitcher now in AAA.  He may be close enough to be another option if McLean struggles, Megill regresses, or Holmes wears out.  I would let him keep learning as long as possible, but not at the expense of the redesigned bullpen.

This season is on the verge of getting away from a talented team.  The bats seem to be returning, but something must be done about the rotation.  I have offered a few suggestions, and would like to see what others are out there.  Please comment.