As people tend to focus considerably on the current Mets roster and the difficult quest to win the division from the Phillies and other competitors, there are some longer term issues the club must face as well. Much has been written about pitching with struggles from all of the starters from time to time (and consistently from Frankie Montas). Quite a few opinion pieces are out there about the less than stellar offense. The sole change in that regard was a .227 hitter as a rental for the remainder of the year. It meant demoting a .240 hitter to Syracuse. However, these issues are well reported and there’s nothing new to discuss here.
No, today is a look at what the club roster will look like in 2026 and beyond. Granted, no one is sure how soon youngsters like Jett Williams, Carson Benge and Ryan Clifford will make it up to Syracuse and eventually to New York. Similarly, there are free agents who likely will be leaving like Starling Marte and Jesse Winker. Then there are the rentals — Cedric Mullins, Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsey and Tyler Rogers. Finally there are the younger players who have not yet fully established themselves but who are in some cases running out of options.
The contract he signed well into the previous off season included a front loaded $54 million total with $30 million allocated to 2025 and $24 million to 2026. Given the totals expected by year’s end for Alonso it is highly unlikely he would want to take a $6 million salary cut to remain with the contract as it is structured.
What makes things even more difficult to absorb is a piece that ran on Tuesday morning suggesting that not only does he intend to exercise that player option to opt out, but as a 30 year old ballplayer he’s looking for a 10-year contract with whomever will offer one which will allow him to retire at age 41. Obviously he is aware that the Mets gave a 15-year deal to Juan Soto and a 10-year deal to Francisco Lindor. Granted, both were younger when those deals were offered but the precedent has been established.
Now to be fair, both Soto and Lindor offer more than merely good home run and RBI numbers. Lindor provides top notch defense and excellent baserunning skills as well as a career batting average significantly better than Alonso. Minus the defense the same things can be said about Soto who this season has started making his stolen base totals part of his game.
Then there’s Alonso. He has transitioned from a major question mark to at least an average major league first baseman. His batting average right now is .266, 15 points higher than his career average. He has no baserunning speed and pretty much is salary is based upon run production. Last season coming off what for him was a somewhat lackluster 2024 season where those production numbers dipped to 34 HRs and 88 RBIs while hitting .240, he wasn’t exactly besieged with offers from other ballclubs.
Now, a year later putting together what will be one of his best ever career years the number of suitors will likely increase, but if he’s serious about a 10-year deal then most would be Alonso suitors will high tail it back to their home cities. The question becomes should the Mets dip into this latter career stage deal which will likely put him at about $325 million in salary obligation if a $2.5 million increase but repeated over the next 9 years is what he would consider sufficient.
On the plus side, you know what Alonso can do and he’s certainly proven he’s capable of playing in New York. He’s just a single homer shy of tying Darryl Strawberry for the club’s all-time home run lead and two dingers away from owning that record himself. He’s a fan favorite (especially this year given the high RBI numbers).
On the minus side are age, declining bat speed and financial obligation, all of which make you think that making another bonus baby type of long term deal may not be the smartest move. Of course, if he walks away all you get from Pete Alonso is a draft pick when he declines the QO. That’s not much for someone of his caliber yet it is a reality the front office will have to consider vs. spending an awful lot of Steve Cohen’s payroll dollars for the next decade.
11 comments:
I think Alonso will have to come back to reality once he hits free agency again. No team will will be willing to go 10 years with him. If I were the Mets I would offer a five year contract for 150 million dollars . That is 30 million dollars a year for five years. If he is smart he would jump at it ,if not, good-bye and good luck.
There is no question that Alonso hits home runs and drives in runs when he hits. Looking at April and June, sign him up for something like Lee suggested. Looking at his May and July, no thank you. His last 30 games, .185/.270/.407. Includes 7 home runs with 26 RBIs Love the home runs and RBIs, but I would love to see more consistency. I believe that that lack of consistency effects the whole line up negatively. Throw garbage at Soto because there isn't anything behind him.
That is why they play 162 games. He will earn what he will earn what he will earn.
If however he signs a long term deal with the Mets? Move those fences in 5-7 feet, so he can hit 5-7 more HRs.a year. How would he look right now with 4 outs turned into HRs? A whole lot better.
Soto, Lindor, Alvarez, and others, too. Just do it. Fences in 5-7 feet, 8 feet in CF.
Alonso has had a QO, so he cannot get it again. The Generational Talent is a good player, but there is something about the team’s hitting approach that just confuses or scrambles players’ heads. Seems like the entire lineup is looking at pitches down the middle. Could it be too many messages? Could it be the team has checked out? Could it be that they are unprepared or over prepared?
One thing is for sure: the Mets need to identify who is part of the solution and start playing them more and drop unproductive hitters in the order or sit them a couple of games.
Gus, all year I have advocated for a more aggressive team approach on strike one. I think it would mean a lot more team hits, and similar level of walks. Why similar walks? If the pitchers know you are not letting first pitch strikes sail by unassailed, they will nibble more, and miss more, and there may be a lot more 1-0 counts than 0-1 counts.
Let's see what he does over these last two months. If he is April/June, okay. If he is May/July, not so okay. Four more home runs and like six more RBIs by bringing in the fences? Probably still not batting over the Mendoza line over his last 30 games. Is it worth a five to ten year contract?
Don't get me wrong. I think Alonso brings a lot to the team but the inconsistency hurts the team in the longer run.
If he hits well over the remainder of the season, maybe a three contract with opt outs.
I love Pete - even when he frustrates me. The big question
Hit send too fast. But we do need to consider Bregman for 3B. Not as much power, but better all around hitter & strong defender. 5-6 year deal max. We can cover first with what we have if needed. Bullpen will cost dollars too. We need another all-around hitter.
Without Pete we would be under .500 at this point so you tell me whether we should sigh him? That also says alot about this under performing team that has to be addressed ASAP. Top payroll should mean at least the playoffs every year but do you really think were a lock to make it and then what David?
Shift McNeil to first in his final year, if they truly expect Ryan Clifford to be ready by mid-2026.
I’d love to sign Pete but think bregman might be better spend. More consistent. Steve should just do both!
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