MACK - MY Wednesday Observations - Jeff McNeil, Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, Francisco Lindor, Tyler Rogers, Mets Schelude, Power Rankings

Morning Thoughts

 

On August 8^th, The San Francisco Giants announced they had promoted outfielder Drew Gilbert from AAA to the parent team.

This comes after only 14 at-bats for AAA- Sacramento, where he went .500/.650/.857/1.507.

A tip of the Mack hat to Drew, but what makes me thing this still wouldn’t have been enough for the Mets to do the similar? I mean, he was hitting well for Syracuse in mid-July. Not these kind of numbers, but a lot better than Tony Tone Taylor.  

Why do I think this move is going to bite the other ass cheek that was left unbitten by PCA?

UPDATE

Drew is off to really shit start, but that does make one wonder if the move to the parent team was nothing more than a hype job.

 

What if Steve Cohen was managing his fund and one stock was limiting the return of it because it kept losing value. Do you think he would stand pat and not off that sucker so his fund could get back to producing the maximum return for his investors.

Just sayin… 

 -IF Gilberto Celestino placed on Syracuse's 7-day Injured List

-RHP Austin Warren placed on Syracuse's 7-day Injured List

-IF David Villar released

-IF Luis De Los Santos placed on Syracuse's Development List

-OF Omar De Los Santos transferred to Double-A Binghamton

On Baseball, Luck, and Squirrels

https://cornerthree.net/2022/08/21/on-baseball-luck-and-squirrels/

When we attempt to take defense out of the equation statistically, it’s really valuable to describe pitcher performance – but maybe not as valuable to describe batter performance.

Enter Jeff McNeil. Affectionately dubbed “the flying squirrel” in college for how he threw his body around the field, the Mets’ do-it-all infielder/outfielder is the perfect example of a player who couldn’t care less about his Statcast metrics. McNeil is a slap hitter who’s never ranked above MLB average in average exit velocity in his career. His career Statcast-expected batting average (xBA) is .274 and has never exceeded .283 over a full season. Only problem is, he’s got a career batting average of .304 and has hit better than .311 in 4 of his 5 seasons.

McNeil’s in the midst of a red-hot streak, hitting .426/.450/.670 in his last 100 plate appearances for the Mets.

Of course, one hypothesis is just a lot of luck. Jeff McNeil’s career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331, far higher than the MLB average which usually sits around .300. By the strict exit velocity/launch angle view, outperforming “expected” results on balls in play, while almost never hitting the ball hard, should be almost impossible.

From a pure statistical perspective, though, it would have to be an unthinkable amount of luck. Not to throw you back into your college stats textbook, but a proportional t-test between his career .304 BA and his .274 xBA, based on a massive sample size of 1693 at-bats, implies essentially a 0.28% chance (0.0028 p-value) that the two proportions (batting averages) come from the same normally-distributed population. That is to say, those two numbers are almost certainly describing – or attempting to describe – completely different players.

McNeil has outperformed his x

wOBA in every season in his career.

Just Baseball – Updated Top 100 Prospects – 7-29

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/#entry-112912

42. Nolan McLean – RHP – New York Mets

Height/Weight: 6’2″, 215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | 3rd Round (91), 2024 (NYM) | ETA: 2025

FASTBALL            Slider    Cutter   CURVEBALL        CHANGEUP        COMMAND        FV

50/55     60/65     55/55     40/50     30/40     40/50     50+

Once a two-way prospect, McLean’s impressive feel to pitch has shifted the focus to the mound where he offers exciting projection based on the athleticism and data. He has converted the projection into production in 2025, elevating both his quality of stuff and consistency.

Arsenal

McLean utilizes a five-pitch mix, but predominantly throws his fastball, slider and cutter. The fastball sits in the mid-90s, reaching 97 MPH from a low release point with some run and ride. McLean’s feel to spin it particularly stands out, especially for a pitcher as inexperienced as he is.

His sweeping slider averages nearly 17 inches of horizontal break while sitting right at zero vertically. Generally a pitch shape that would yield noticeable platoon splits, the sharpness and McLean’s feel for it makes it effective against opposite-handed hitters as well, averaging more than 3,000 RPM. Landing it for a strike roughly two thirds of the time as a pro is particularly impressive given how much horizontal action it features in the mid 80s.

McLean’s upper 80s gyro cutter gives him a second above average offering, mixing it to righties and lefties evenly. The downward action it features makes it an effective ground ball pitch, especially to righties.

The fourth offering for McLean is a sweeping curveball that he will flip in sparingly, but has the potential to be a quality offering if he can find more consistency with it. The 78-80 MPH pitch averages 19 inches of horizontal break with 12 inches of vertical at more than 3300 RPM.

His changeup lags far behind the rest of his arsenal, landing it for a strike less than 50% of the time in 2024 with an understandably low usage rate of roughly 8%.

The presence of McLean’s cutter and curveball and the effectiveness of his slider against opposite-handed hitters help negate the need for a useful changeup, as he struck out left-handed hitters at a 4% higher clip in 2024 despite lacking a usable change.

Outlook

After a strong first full season of pitching as a starter, McLean is a candidate to make a big leap in 2025 given his feel to spin it and athleticism on the mound.

For context, he threw twice as many innings in 2024 as he did in his entire collegiate career. The part-time hitting he was doing in his first pro season and a half is no longer as well, only adding to the intrigue of what McLean can progress to with his focus now being more isolated.

With his pitch mix and ability to get contact on the ground, McLean has a good chance to stick as a back-end starter, with the upside to be a middle rotation option in a quality rotation.

The Top 30 Mets Pitching Prospects

isaacgrofman@substack.com

2. Nolan McLean

FF: 55/55 | FC: 60/60 | SW: 70/70 | SI: 55/55 | CH: 55/55 | CB: 55/55 | Control: 45/50 | Arsenal: 55/55 | Uniqueness: 55 | FV: 60 

We’ve seen McLean go from a raw two-way player to a near MLB-ready starter in just a year. The Oklahoma State product is still in his first season as a full-time pitcher, which makes his 2.17 ERA over 87 innings across Double and Triple-A even more impressive. His 60.2 innings in Triple-A have given us the first substantial public data on him, and what we've seen is a mature six-pitch mix. The centerpiece is his mid-to-high 80s, 3,000 RPM sweeper, which would already rank among the best in the majors if he were called up tomorrow. While its whiff rate is modest, that may be a result of over-usage or hitters becoming too comfortable with the shape out of his arm slot—both fixable with slight adjustments. Backed by a mid-to-high 90s Fastball , a hard cutter, a promising changeup and sinker, and a curveball that shows solid shape, McLean has both depth and uniqueness in his arsenal. He’s still sharpening his command, but the athleticism, pitch variety, and performance indicators all point to a potential mid-rotation starter with upside.

The Mets’ next center fielder is… ?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6541701/2025/08/08/mets-next-center-fielder-binghamton-carson-benge-jett-williams/

Carson Benge

Drafted in the first round out of Oklahoma State last summer, Benge earned a promotion to Double A in late June. To say he hit the ground running, as his manager Reid Brignac did Thursday, is to understate the cliche. Even Usain Bolt might not have hit the ground sprinting this fast. Benge was just named the Eastern League’s player of the month for July, and he entered Thursday hitting .349 with a .437 on-base percentage and 1.070 OPS with Binghamton.

Mets director of player development Andrew Christie called it “repatterning” with Benge’s swing — “changing the goal of what he’s trying to do.” That means fewer groundballs and more balls pulled in the air. Benge hasn’t been thinking about that consciously. It’s just been the result of the drills the Mets have worked on with him this season.

The bat sure looks like it can play, and the glove is coming around with more exposure in center. As a two-way player in college, Benge saw the majority of his outfield time in a corner. Thursday marked his 45th start in center this season, compared to 38 in the corners.

Benge needs to get up to speed in center, and that’s not just about reps; his next step is adding the footspeed that makes an outfielder a viable option in center. The Mets have made deeper investments into their sports science department that they hope can pay off this winter, for Benge and others. They’ve already seen progress there with Benge this season, with higher max speeds on his routes in recent weeks, according to Christie.

Francisco Lindor

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6544792/2025/08/10/mets-lose-brewers-francisco-lindor/

On what he’d later refer to as a routine play, Francisco Lindor committed an error, failing to handle a high chopper, that cost the New York Mets two runs in their latest loss. As the ball trickled into center field, Lindor, nicknamed Mr. Smile and known for carrying a consistently upbeat personality, crouched down and hung his head. It wouldn’t be the last misplay in an unsightly 7-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. It was the first.

When the inning ended, Lindor made a beeline toward the dugout. Once he walked by teammates patting him on the back, he was by himself. He slammed his glove onto the bench. Once. Twice. And on the third slam, the impact was so hard the glove bounced toward the dugout railing, prompting a teammate to pick it up and hand it back to him.

Deadline Deals That Didn’t Get Enough Love

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb, best-trade-deadline-deals-did-not-get-enough-love/

Tyler Rogers

New York Mets receive: RHP Tyler Rogers

San Francisco Giants receive: RHP Blade Tidwell (NYM No. 10), OF Drew Gilbert (NYM No. 12), RHP José Buttó

The trade for Tyler Rogers received significant attention initially, but not all of it seemed positive for the Mets. Many lauded the move as an “overpay” for New York, given the players they parted with in return.

Blade Tidwell and Drew Gilbert have shown promise throughout their time in the minor leagues. Both are just 24 years old, and could make a sizable impact at the major league level for the Giants.

Trading two top prospects with six years of control apiece and an MLB pitcher for a rental reliever may appear to be a miscalculation at first glance. However, the truth is not so simple.

The Mets have maintained a stacked farm system with a wealth of young talent ascending prospect ranking boards. This has resulted in a logjam at the major league level, making it difficult for Tidwell and Gilbert to push through.

On the other side of the trade, Rogers is more than a run-of-the-mill reliever. In fact, he has been one of the league’s best for a number of years now.

Over seven seasons in MLB, Rogers has posted a 2.78 ERA over 401.2 innings. This is largely due to Rogers’ unorthodox delivery and pitching profile, as he releases the ball just inches from the ground.

Despite averaging just 83.3 MPH on his fastball, Rogers owns a 95th percentile pitching run value alongside a 2.4% walk percentage (100th percentile) and 1.8% barrel percentage (100th percentile).

Rogers has never been known for having strikeout stuff. However, he is incredibly effective at preventing hard contact (97th percentile hard-hit percentage) and inducing ground balls (99th percentile).

Paired with the Mets’ other deadline acquisition, Ryan Helsley, and longtime closer Edwin Díaz, Rogers rounds out an incredibly formidable trio at the bottom of the Mets’ bullpen.

 

Which MLB contenders have the toughest road to the playoffs?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6542881/2025/08/11/mlb-contenders-strength-of-schedule-august-10/

New York Mets

Record: 63-55

Playoff odds: 78.1 percent

Strength of schedule: .505

Rest of August schedule

Braves                  Aug. 12-14           3              Home                   .421

Mariners             Aug. 15-17           3              Home                   .543

Nationals            Aug. 19-21           3              Road                     .395

Braves                  Aug. 22-24           3              Road                    .421

Phillies                 Aug. 25-27           3              Home                   .570

Marlins                Aug. 28-31           4              Home                   .491

Key series: Aug. 25-27 vs. Phillies

The Mets’ playoff odds have fallen precipitously in the past two weeks, from 95.8 percent to 79.1 percent. Four of their next six series are against teams trailing them in the NL East, but the spotlight is on the Mets-Phillies weekday series late this month. The Mets swept the Phillies in April, then dropped two of three in June. So, advantage Mets so far, by a slim margin. But these two teams have seven head-to-head games remaining; they also meet again in September at the end of a 10-game Mets road trip.

Mets Prospect Group                     @bkfan09

With the loss of Josue Chacoa, Sebastian Toro (SS) is the Mets Top Prospect In The 2026 IFA Class

MLB Power Rankings

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6545421/2025/08/12/mlb-power-rankings-brewers-mariners/

11. New York Mets (11.0)

Record: 63-55

Last Power Ranking: 7

Free agent stock watch: 1B Pete Alonso

Alonso’s next home run will set the Mets’ franchise record, which right now, as the team flails in the NL East, might feel like honoring Shea Stadium after a crushing season-ending loss did. Like many of his teammates, Alonso looked a lot better a couple months ago. The National League’s player of the month in April, Alonso endured one of the worst months of his career in July. His OPS since the end of April is .768 — more in line with the player he was in 2023 and 2024 than what he looked like he might be to begin this year. His Baseball Savant page is still full of red, and you can’t just eliminate a month as good as Alonso’s first this season. He will still assuredly opt out of the one year and $24 million on his deal for next year. But he might be looking again at shorter-term deals than the long-term payout he’d hoped for last winter.