Herb G - Is a World Series Appearance Possible?

As reported previously in Mack’s Mets, Bovada, the on-line betting site, set the Mets’ over/under win total for 2015 at 81½, with three teams ranked ahead of them in the race for the second wild card spot. The projected Bovada win totals for National League teams is as follows:

NL East winner: Washington Nationals - 92½
NL West winner: L.A. Dodgers - 92½
NL Central winner: St. Louis Cardinals - 88½
Wild Card winner # 1: San Diego Padres - 85½
Wild Card winner # 2: San Francisco Giants - 84½
Also ran # 1: Pittsburgh Pirates - 83½
Also ran # 2: Chicago Cubs - 82½
Also ran # 3: N.Y. Mets - 81½
Also ran # 4: Miami Marlins - 81½
Also ran # 5: Milwaukee Brewers - 78½

The Pecota predictions have the same playoff participants, but they have 3 teams tied for the first spot out of the playoffs, among them, our N.Y. Mets:

NL East winner: Washington Nationals 91-71
NL West winner: L.A. Dodgers 97-65
NL Central winner: St. Louis Cardinals 89-73
Wild Card winner # 1: San Diego Padres 85-77
Wild Card winner # 2: San Francisco Giants 84-78
Also ran # 1: (tie) N.Y. Mets 81-81
Also ran # 1: (tie) Pittsburgh Pirates 81-81
Also ran # 1: (tie) Chicago Cubs 81-81
Also ran # 4: Miami Marlins 80-82
Also ran # 5: Milwaukee Brewers 80-82

Recently, metsblog.com conducted a poll and, of over 9500 respondents, 86.3% said the Mets would win more than 81 games. Big surprise since metsblog‘s readership is comprised mostly of Mets fans. According to both Bovada and Pecota, however, it will require only four more wins to snag the second wild card spot. (That is, of course, assuming that none of the teams ranked ahead of our Mets win any more games than projected for them.)

As D-Whit just showed us in the 8:00 AM post, there are a number of scenarios that could enable the Mets to win several more games. In fact, it should not require the “perfect storm” described by D-Whit to make the playoffs. All we would seem to need is just enough to get us to 85 wins. From that point, it would be on the shoulders (or should I say arms) of a still maturing trio of young stud starters and another group of young relievers, to carry the team through October to a possible berth in the Fall Classic. Is a World Series appearance really so far fetched for our New York Mets this year? Surely, it would be difficult to negotiate our way past the Cardinals, Dodgers and/or Nationals, although we would have to face only two of those. But with stellar pitching, which we all believe the Mets have, anything is possible.


bob gregory said...

There appears to be quite a few Macksmets blogger members that should be looking forward to cashing in this season on the Over 81 1/2 win betting line.
I look forward to reading about all the money they have won in October/November and all the plans they have for the money the Mets helped them win with ease.
Let's go Mets!!!

Herb G said...

Bob -

We are all planning to pool our money for a Mack's Mets trip to our opponent's home city to see the away games of the WS. lol.

James Preller said...

This is the intention of the expanded MLB playoff format -- more teams than ever before have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, including the Mets.

Is it possible? Absolutely. And come a short series, we know that the best time doesn't always win. So could the Mets win the World Series? Yes, they could. it's possible.

The interesting thing to watch is what happens when a sport with the longest regular season -- 162 games -- creates a situation that diminishes the importance of all those games? What happens when the idea of "excellence" and simply being "the best" no longer makes a whole lot of financial or emotional sense?

I don't know. It used to be that you didn't want to be the KC Royals. Now it's held up as a dream.

Let's go Mets. I'm excited for baseball.

Hobie said...

Doodling in the margin of the NYT this morning:

Young Guns (Harvey-deGrom-Wheeler): 45 wins
Trade Fodder (Gee-Niese-Colon): 15
Call-ups (Montero-Syndergaard-Matz-Bowman!): 10
Bull Pen: 15
Confidence interval: +/- 2

83-87 wins

Of course rooting for that "Perfect Storm."

Herb G said...

Hobie - add to your doodles:

Young Guns (Mejia, Familia)
Trade Fodder (Murphy - if he won't get a QA)
Call Ups (Reynolds)

Thomas Brennan said...

With all due respect, we've had enough "perfect storms" already this winter. BRR!! Play ball!

Reese Kaplan said...

I think Dilson Herrera will be called up prior to Reynolds as he's on the 40-man roster already and a transition to a power hitting 2nd baseman with speed (think Joe Morgan) will make the loss of the popular Murphy easier to swallow.

Reynolds is in a tough spot with Herrera at 2B first in line and Wilmer Flores at SS. If Flores makes most of the routine plays and is on his way to a 15/75/.275 season (modest prediction) then he'll cement himself into the position.

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