8/8/12

Q and A - Rafael Montero


Ross Clark asked -
Hey Mack, after hearing of Rafael Montero's performance yesterday I looked deeper into him at baseball reference and saw some impressive things, how rare its it to see walk, strikeout, whip, and era numbers that he has at that level, would it indicate that he has command rarely seen at that level or that he is blowing people away with his "stuff"?
Mack
Ross, most of what I have written about Rafael lately came from one conversation with Frank Viola, but Montero has been doing this since being signed on January 20, 2011. He started that season with the DSL Mets, but wound up pitching for four different teams (DSL, GSL, K-Port, and Brooklyn. He ended the season: 5-4, 2.15, 17-G, 12-ST, 71.0-IP, 66-K, only 13-BB. He had some trouble that year (K-Port, Brooklyn) with control, but not in Savannah this year (0.96-WHIP). His Sav-Lucy FIP this season is 3.21/2.49 and his BABIP is .264/.273 (you want to be .275 or less).
Montero currently seems capable of pitching at will and the great part is he doesn’t have to be rushed. It seems to me that Zack Wheeler and Robert Carson will join Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, and Josh Edgin next year as part of the future Mets pitching staff. R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana will hold fort down until Michael Fulmer, Cory Mazzoni, and Adam Kolarek arrive, but you have to raise Montero’s ETA to ST 2014 (psst… don’t forget Jack Leathersich here either…).
The 2014 rotation may be: Wheeler, Harvey, Dickey, Montero, Niese and no room for Santana. Who woulda thunk it?

(I forgot about Tyler Pill. What do you do with all these guys???)

11 comments:

Willis said...

You overlook Gee. He's a good pitcher who's getting better. And he's having success at the Major League level.

Mack Ade said...

I didn't

without injuries, next year will be (in no particular order) Wheeler, Harvey Santana, Niese, Dickey

Goee will go to the pen or to another team, in a trade... he will also be the emergency starter id someone goes down

Justin M. said...

Would be good to have Gee as a backup for Santana. Johan can't be counted on for 30 starts.

Mack Ade said...

these are all very positive problems and continue to point out that some of these guys need to be moved for position players of the future

Mack Ade said...

I'm sorry about the spelling - I have to stay lying down in bed at a certain point of meds and can't see the keys

Mack Ade said...

I'm sorry about the spelling - I have to stay lying down in bed at a certain point of meds and can't see the keys

Willis said...

As you undoubtedly know, there is no way Wheeler begins the season in Queens. So, the likely rotation will be Dickey, Niese, Santana, Harvey and Gee.

The most likely reasons for the Mets to call up Wheeler early next season are these: (a) Santana gets hurt or is ineffective and/or (b) Wheeler is dominating AAA.

Plus, what's Gee going to return in a trade? Unlikely to be an impact bat. They'd get that for Dickey, though, I think.

I think you are discounting the trajectory of Gee's improvement over these last three seasons, two of which have been in the major leagues.

Mack Ade said...

Will:

You know what I undoubtably know?

In my opinion, Zack Wheeler will begin the season in Queens. In your opinion, he won't. Big deal. Oranges and apples.

I'm not discouting anything, Will. I'm just typing what I think will happen. Forget Buffalo this season. I think he'll blow his way through spring training.

I like Gee a lot and I consider him possibly the most intelligent pitcher on the staff. You probably are right about him sticking around because other, more glamorous names would fit in a trade better.

I would just love the Mets to convert him to the guythat comes in when someone is talling aprat in the 5th.

But, that's just me.

It's late and my meds are making me type different words than I'm thinking (don't hurt your brain, folks).

Night

Willis said...

Good night, Mack. I just don't see any way the Mets bring Wheeler to Queens out of spring training. And then I bet that Gee pitches effectively to the extent that they won't remove him from the rotation. Finally, I don't think Santana has a full season left in his tank. Or, miracle of miracles, Santana becomes a trade chip AND they actually trade him. Gee is an effective major league starter who is also reliable. Santana is well past it. The 2014 team that you feel will contend will probably feature Gee in the rotation.

Willis said...

Further, the role you describe for Gee can adequately be filled by Hefner or perhaps McHugh (who I'd like see start some games this year if they cut bait with Young). Gee is too talented for the swing spot on a pitching staff.

Mack Ade said...

Will, morning.

Everything you says makes a lot of sense.

Isn't it great that we are wrangling over having TOO MUCH good pitching?

BTW... Dillon is a big time spring pitcher. He comes to camp every year ready. I remember the days his father would be inside the fence by the picnic tables just outside the minor league training building, mentally helping his son get ready for the day.

No one, I repeat, no one worked harder to become a major league pitcher than Dillon Gee.

I am very proud just to know him.