MMs Top 25: #3 2B/SS Dilson Herrera


#3 2B/SS Dilson Herrera (LR: #14)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5' 10" Weight: 150 lb
Age: 20
Acquired: Trade w/ Pittsburgh Pirates, 08/21/2013, w/ RP Victor Black for RF Marlon Byrd, C John Buck.

2014: (A+/AA) .323/.379/.479, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 23 SB (77%), 47 BB, 96 K
2013: (A) .267/.334/.416, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 14 SB (70%), 40 BB, 116 K
2012: (R/SS-A) .286/.341/.489, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 12 SB (75%), 19 BB, 47 K

     If there's one thing we have learned about Sandy Alderson, its that he's a shrewd trade negotiator. He turned a useless Ike Davis into a Top 25 in Blake Taylor + improved production from Lucas Duda. He also traded a career season from RA Dickey into the #1 (Syndergaard) and #2 (d'Arnaud) prospects in 2013's list, and the 36 yr old Marlon Byrd into our current 7th inning reliever and Mack Mets new #3 prospect, Dilson Herrera.

     Don't be fooled by the listed weight above...this kid may be small but he's built football strong. MLB.com has him as one of the Top 10 best 2B prospects in the game and even that may be underselling him a bit. While mlb.com has him only possessing 1 plus tool (speed), the production he's shown in Binghamton has made me a believer that he can become a 3 plus tool (average, power, speed) guy.

     In a pretty neutral hitting league environment with the Binghamton Mets, Herrera smashed 10 HRs and drove in 48 RBIs in only 278 Plate Appearances. He also swiped 9 bags and posted a reasonable 18.7% K rate. His AA OPS of .967 would have been tops in the entire league including Top 100 prospect Michael Taylor. Defensively, Herrera has never posted a season where he's committed more than 15 errors at 2B. His conversion rate on plays involving him stands at a reasonable 97.5%, which is what Daniel Murphy has peaked at this season.

     At only 20 years old, The front office is already giving Herrera a cup of coffee at the MLB level this September. With Daniel Murphy cost controlled for 1 more season, Herrera may not start next with the big league club, but the front office will be comfortable knowing that he'll be ready to take over once they trade Murphy or he suffers and injury. This also allows them to see, first hand, what final tweaks Herrera needs in AAA before becoming the Mets 2B for the next 10 seasons.

Ceiling: Solid all-around 2B. 2 or 3 time MLB All-Star (Ian Kinsler)
Floor: .270 AVG/10 HR/15 SB MLB starting 2B. (Howie Kendrick)


Thomas Brennan said...

Hopefully his high end is similar to that of a past smallish 2B, named Joe Morgan. He may never have Joe's prolific stolen base acumen (not that Dilson is slow, as his 49 steals the last 3 years attests), but I'll gladly take the rest of the Joe Morgan package.

Mack Ade said...

I think this is a fair ranking of a future star

Hobie said...

Yes, been thinking of that RHB (Joe Morgan) analogy for a while.

And maybe you remember Joe's 1st year with the 45's, his nickname was "clank" (25+ errors), but turned into a pretty good 2B. Walked, even early in his career, a lot more than Dilson though.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Murph is my kind of player, but after seeing this kid play, I'm not nearly as worried as I was about Murph being traded - it may even be good for the team in the long run. I look forward to seeing Herrera in his prime!

Mack's Mets © 2012