11/27/12

2011 Mets Draft Analysis (Picks 1-25)

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This is Sandy Alderson’s first Mets draft and you will immediately see the emphasis on high school players.

1 (13) OF Brandon Nimmo – the 2012 Brooklyn numbers were okay, but the 46-BB in 266-Abs were outstanding for a 19-year old. BA was only .243, but OBP was .372. The Mets desperately need this pick to be for real and they need him in Queens by 2015. There’s no reason to send him to the pitcher-friendly deathtrap of Grayson Stadium in Savannah. I see him starting St. Lucie in 2013 where he can also be around the organizational coaches that run the extended camps.

1 (44) P Michael Fulmer -  the Mets seemed to pull this name out of a hat… I had nothing on him, but I really like what I see so far. An excellent 2012 in Savannah: 7-6, 2.74, 1.20, 101-K, 108.1-IP, 38-BB. Like Nimmo, played at 19-yeards old. Fulmer will head up an all-star rotation in St. Lucie and, because of his age, doesn’t ETA until 2016.

2 (71) P Cory Mazzoni -  Being a college junior, Mazzoni was fast tracked. Pitched extremely well in St. Lucie last season (5-1, 3.25, 12-starts), but did hit the AA wall after that (14-starts, 5-5, 4.46). May be moving a little too fast. I’ve give him another year (full this time) in Binghamton to develop.

3 (101) P Logan Verrett -  Verrett is an ex-anchor pitcher for Baylor, who sat out the end of the 2011 season after playing in the NCAA tourney. In 2012, he split 17 starts between Savannah and St. Lucie with excellent results:: 5-2, 2.70, 0.97. Was the first Savannah pitcher to be promoted because he was the first ready. Verrett looks like the real deal and will get to Binghamton sometime in 2013, where he will try and climb the AA wall.

4 (132) P Tyler Pill -  the third of three quality college starters in a row, Pill followed Verrett to St. Lucie and actually had better stats there (6-1, 2.05, 1.09). He also will eventually work his way to Binghamton and we’ll see what he can produce that the AA level.

5 (162) P Jack Leathersich – you know how I hate relief pitchers being drafted this high… well, in two seasons with Brooklyn, Savannah, and St. Lucie, Leathersich has 139 strike outs in 85 innings pitched. That’s a 14.25 K/9 ratio, higher than any major league pitcher has ever produced. Okay, it’ll go down… but, here comes the hard part… AA. Still. It’s hard not to believe that he will elevate at the same rate Josh Edgin did.

6 (192) CF Joe Tuschak – Alderson’s third high school pick of the draft… Tuschak has been a complete bust. .204 for the GCL Mets (108-AB) in 2011 and .192 for Kingsport (130-AB) in 2012. Not too many knew much about him. Even PG only had him under their State notes section. Said to be toolsy with good speed. I’m not sure where he’s going at this point in his professional career, but, wherever it is will probably be as a utility outfielder until the new draft class comes aboard.

7 (222) 1B Cole Frenzel – It was surprising to see a first baseman drafted this high. He was a SS in high school (God forbid) and was drafted simply because of his gap bat which hasn’t developed as a pro. Got 162-Abs in Savannah last year (.204), but will probably step aside for Brian Harrison to play St. Lucie and Jayce Boyd to play Savannah.

8 (252) SS Danny Muno – I hated the fact that the Mets were drafting a college senior this high in the draft when things like that are usually done in the late rounds. Still, Muno always hit well at Fresno State and wound up leading the NYPL in hitting in 2011. Last year, he got suspended for 50, but bounced back (clean, I assume), hitting .280 for St. Lucie (289-AB). Muno will play 2013 as a 24-year old so I have no problems with him bumping up to Binghamton and joining TJ Rivera and Aderlin Rodriguez in the infield. The Mets may have a live one here or, at worse, another Josh Satin.

9 (282) P Alex Panteliodis – ‘Johnny Pants’ has had two words attached to him throughout his baseball career, ‘talented’ and ‘inconsistent’. I personally watched him go through this last season with Savannah. There was a three game stretch where he was completely lost out on the mound, which was followed by four games he was virtually unhittable. Mention his name to Frank Viola and he’s shake his head, saying “he’s an enigna”.  Still, 5-8, 3.64, as a 21-year old in Savannah, isn’t a bad way to start your professional career. His 2013 problems are depth of talent on the lower level teams. St. Lucie already looks to be Michael Fulmer, Domingo Tapia, Luis Mateo, Tyler Pill, and Jake deGrom. This leaves ‘Pants’, Jim Fuller, and Marcos Camarena on the outside looking in.

10 (312) P Matthew Budgell  

11 – (342) – P Christian Montgomery -  Montgomery dropped in the draft due to shoulder problems and the fact that he came back too early and very overweight. It cost the Mets only $250K to sign him which might be a steal. Keith Law says that, if he comes back in shape, he definitely would have been a first round pick. I agree. I remember him being very high a year before the draft in the mocks I had compiled. He spent the 2012 season in Extended Camp, probably on a diet. They did sneak him in for two starts (6-23, 6-29) in Kingsport  (2-G, 2-ST, 0-1, 9.39, 7.2-IP, 7-K, 6-BB). He’ll pitch 2013 at 20-years old, so there is no rush (good… there’s no room for him anyway). My guess is Brooklyn, if he is ready.

12 (372) P Kenny Mathews -   The Mets went back to the high schools for this pick, but he simply didn’t sign. Was a hghly touted two-way player who seemed very open to signing on interviews on draft day. Even Jim Callis said he was leaning to signing.  I have no idea what turned this negotiation south but I assume it involved money. Mathews did go to CSF where he pitched 6-2, 3.68, 1.07, in 2012. A shame.

13 (402) P Robert Gsellman  -  Another high school pick (now 7 of the first 14 picks) that threw a few games for the GCL Mets in 2011. Was part of one of the worst teams in minor league history and held his own (1-3, 3.92, 1.37, 11-G, 5-ST, 43.2-IP, 33-K, 18-BB). Needs to work on control problems.  Far too early to determine what the team has here. Will play 2013 as a 19-year old. I’d send him back to Kingsport and put him in the rotation.

14 (432) C Xorge Carrillo -  these are the kind of picks that drive you crazy. He attended two years at Central Arizona College (.347 and .366) and then two more at Arizona State (.353, and .330). Great hitter, right?  So far, Brooklyn in 2011 (.217) and Savannah in 2012 (.154). Frankly, the only chance he has of sticking around this season is as a backup to Kevin Palwecki in Savannah. A bad pick.

15 (462) SS Phillip Evans – a classic steal… Evans had sent word that he wouldn’t be signing so he fell well below the round level (1-2… Keith Law had him as the 55th overall player) he was originally projected to be. The Mets pulled out over slot money ($650K equivalent to sup-1 money) and signed him. I was thrilled, but he hasn’t done much since. Played Brooklyn last season (294-AB, .252/.328/.337/.665, 5-HR, 29-RBI, 48-K, 31-BB). As you all know, the Mets went on to draft SS Gavin Cecchini in the first round this past draft. The assumption is Evans will move to second base if and when he gets in the way of Cecchini. In the long run, the Mets must not have liked what they saw in Evans.

16 (492) CF Bradley Marquez  -  Marguez is the first of five CFers
 picked in a row. This was basically a high school football star that was committed to Texas Tech. He did play baseball, and there was a deal in place that he could play in the Mets system while maintaining his eligibility to play college baseball. A very raw project who is a super athlete and Mets fans have now been aided after he suffered a season-ending knee injury. There were already chatter that he was going to give up football at the end of this season, so, I assume, if the knee heal, he will join the Mets full time. So far, 30-Abs for Kingport (.267). He will play 2013 as a 20-year old, so I’d send him back to Kingsport to learn the game.

17 (522) CF Jonathan Clark -  Clark was a college boy who has been used only as a fill-in player. Looks to be a roster fill. Played for 4 teams in the past two years (174-AB, .195)

18 (552) CF Travis Taijeron -  another college player who has had two excellent seasons (2010 –Brooklyn - .299/.387/.557/.943, 9-HR, 44-RBI) and (2011 – Savannah - .291/.401/.548/.949, 12-HR, 44-RBI in basically half a season). The down side is he was promoted to St. Lucie and tanked (.203, 7-HR). Still, that’s 19-HRs in one season and he needs a full season at St. Lucie under his belt to determine his future.
19 (582) CF Dustin Lawley -  Lawley looked like just another 19th round college pick, but, he had a good season after the draft for Kingsport (232-AB, 9-HR, 43-RBI, .284), followed by a halfway decent season with a repeat of pop in Savannah this past year (.261, 14-HR, 66-RBI). The Mets think they may have a power bat here and sent him to the AFL for some more work. 
Now playing 3B which should wake up Aderlin Rodriguez.

20 (612) CF Mason Robbins  -  Robbins was a big time high school prospect that the Mets hoped to convince not to go to college like he projected. It didn’t work.

21 (642) P John Gant  - Gant was another high school draftee that finished the 2010 season with the GCL-Mets (0-1, 6.48). He had a very good season in 2011 for a very bad Kingsport team (3-3, 4.55) whch featured dominant pitching during his last few outing. He ended the season with a late promotion to Savannah. 0-1 (10.38). It’s hard to say where he will slot in during the 2013 season. Savannah will be stocked with the old Brooklyn rotation and he just might be odd man out like Marcos Camarena was this past year.

22 (672) SS Casey Turgeon -  did not sign and went on to the University of Florida (.281).

23 (702) C Jeffrey Diehl -  Diehl signed late and didn’t play the 2011 season. He was given a fair shot in 2012 (171 ABs) with Kingsport in 2012 and hit .251/.291/.404/.695. Participated in the Instructs this past September so he should move on to Brooklyn next season.

24 (732) 1B Tant Shepherd -  four year college roster fill that did get some time in Kingsport (137-AB, .241) last season. Has no chance to go full season team in 2013.
25 (762) P  A.J. Reed -  High school player that didn’t sign and went on to Kentucky (5-3, 2.52).

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Loved this recap! Hopefully nimmo and fulmer turn out to be strong major leaguers. Thanks Mack

jonah said...

Nothing to say about Matthew Budgell?

tony said...

Love to read about the minors.keep doing it,that's what baseball is all about.

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