11/27/12

Mack Stuff – The Beltran Effect, Top 56 Mets Prospects, Evaluating Prospect Lists

9 comments




The Mets appear considerably more open to a Wright contract extension than to one for Dickey, and that makes sense. Wright has the longer history with the team and the more definable market. As a third baseman who turns 30 next month, he has the framework of what he should be paid by looking at his pal Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, whom Washington extended last February for six years and $100 million.

As expected, everyone is still writing about Wright and Dickey. Is there a combined word here? Wrigkey?

If we use Sandy history as an example, this could go on for a while, especially if either of these players (through their agents) sends signs that they are reluctant to reaching any agreement on a long term extension before the start of spring training. Alderson seems like the kind of man that doesn’t like to be backed against a wall. He was very swift to rid himself of some early contracts when he came aboard and he obviously didn’t want any part of Jason Bay anymore. Additionally, don’t be surprised if one or more of these negotiations go far past opening day.

I will predict this. Alderson will go immediately into the trading mode if an extension isn’t worked out before the end of February. The Sandy Mets are not going to dick around with phone calls, followed by tweets. And, don’t be surprised if this continues up to the all-star break where he can pull off another Zack Wheeler kind of deal.

Look, if you’re going to lose both Wright and Dickey after the 2013 season, why not wait and see who is in contention and go after their next top prospect? The loss would be great, but the addition of, lets say, Bubba Starling and Jackie Bradley Jr. would ease the pain.

Top Prospects By Team – Matt Garrioch - http://www.mlbprospectguide.com/p/top-15-prospects.html?spref=tw  - Mets

1  Matt Harvey  P  Second Starter
2  Brandon Nimmo  OF  First Division Starter
3  Zack Wheeler  P  Second Starter
4  Kirk Nieuwenhuis  OF
5  Aderlin Rodriguez  3B  Second Division Starter
6  Rafael Montero  P  Second Starter
7  Gavin Cecchini  SS  Bench Player
8  Cesar Puello  OF  First Division Starter
9  Jefry Marte  3B  First Division Starter
10  Jeurys Familia  P  Third Starter
11 Wilmer Flores  3B  First Division Starter
12  Alonzo Harris  2B  Second Division Starter
13  Jenrry Mejia  P  Third Starter
14  Tomas Nido  C  First Division Starter
15  Gilbert Gomez  OF  Second Division Starter
16  Darrell Ceciliani  OF  First Division Starter
17 Francisco Pena  C  First Division Starter
18  Corey Oswalt  P  Third Starter
19  Juan Centeno  C  First Division Starter
20  Wilfredo Tovar  SS  First Division Starter
21  Akeel Morris  P  Fourth Starter
22  Juan Urbina  P  Set Up Man
23  Camden Maron  C  Second Division Starter
24  Cory Mazzoni  P Third Starter
25  Michael Fulmer  P  Third Starter
26  Gabriel Ynoa  P  Third Starter
27  Phillip Evans  SS  Bench Player
28  Christian Montgomery  P
29  Matt Den Dekker  OF  Bench Player
30  Armando Rodriguez  P  Middle Reliever
31  Elvin Ramirez  P  Closer
32  Robert Carson  P  Middle Reliever
33  Domingo Tapia  P  Third Starter
34  Kevin Plawecki  C  Bench Player
35  Chris Flexen  P  Third Starter
36  Juan Lagares  SS  Bench Player
37 Stefan Sabol  C  Bench Player
38  Richard Lucas  3B  Bench Player
39 Cory Vaughn OF Bench Player
40  Darin Gorski  P  Third Starter
41  Angel Cuan  P  Third Starter
42  Alex Panteliodis  P  Third Starter
43  Rainy Lara  P  Third Starter
44  Logan Verrett  P  Third Starter
45  Tyler Pill  P  Third Starter
46  Miller Diaz  P  Third Starter
47  Hansel Robles  P  Third Starter
48  Bradley Marquez  OF
49  Matt Reynolds  3B  Bench Player
50  Jayce Boyd  1B  Bench Player
51  Robert Whalen  P 
52  Matt Bowman  P Third Starter
53  Logan Taylor  P  Middle Reliever
54   Travis Taijeron  OF  Bench Player
55  Matt Koch  P  Bench Player
56  Ryan Fraser  P  Middle Reliever

Boy, where do I start…

I’ve followed Matt for years now. He’s had his own site well before joining John Sickles. Matt has always been one to think big. I think he actually printed a ‘top 2000 prospect list’ once which always made me wonder how you can decipher between the 1988th and 1989th pick.

I’ve always believed that the ranking of each team’s prospects should be left to beat and blog writers that follow a particular team. Moreover, they should be done by writers like Rob Castellano or Toby Hyde; those who specialize in the minor league teams of that organization. You will never see a team official come out with one of these and scouts would be fired if they printed the notes in their books.

I’ve also learned over the years not to try and project anyone that hasn’t played for a full season team. Every organization has a bunch of players that look awfully good hitting against a 44th round draft pick. And pitching is even less predictable. The speed ballers always get the nod which means nothing at the critical AA level (there is no ball easier to hit at the major league level than a 94 mph fastball that is thrown straight). In our case, Savannah would be the first true test whether or not someone has the ‘stuff’ needed to go all the way, but even those leagues are littered with free-swinging undisciplined hitters and pitchers that don’t know the difference from an inside strike and a pitchout.

Matt’s list has all the players in the system that ‘could’ qualify as a top 50 prospect, but just the expression ‘top 50 prospect’ does not tag you with being special. I always liked John Sickles’ approach (grading A,B,C, etc.) because it exposes just how few true prospects there are in every system. Sickles has one basic rule of thumb… if you’re below B, you’re probably going to be coaching at the high school level soon.

The Mets have done very well within their system. Their entire infield is homegrown. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Lucas Duda could represent two-thirds of the opening day outfield. And three-fifths of the rotation was drafted. The negative in that is that the current minor league system has been thinned out to the point that there just isn’t that many ‘A’s’ and ‘B’s’ left.

My list differs from Matt’s. I’m not saying he’s wrong, but I see it from closer in than he does.
My ‘A’ players are SP Matt Harvey, SP Zack Wheeler. That’s all. ‘A’ players are ‘can’t miss’ and only fail if hit by a truck.

There’s one ‘A-‘ on my list: SP Rafael Montero. He’s an ‘A’ waiting to happen and may turn out to be more talented than both Harvey and Wheeler.

B+ would be 3B Wilmer Flores. I need to see one more half season from Flores before I raise him to ‘A’.

My ‘B’ players are SP Michael Fulmer and RP Jack Leathersich. Fulmer has incredible maturity for his age and ‘Leather’ has a K/IP ratio that, so far, is off the charts.

There’s a bunch of B- players… OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF Matt den Dekker, SP Logan Verrett, SP Tyler Pill, SP Domingo Tapia, SP Jake deGrom, C Cam Maron, and OF Cory Vaughn. All have shown the ability to dominate at their last level but need addition time to develop into true baseball entities.

That’s it for me… 14. But remember, there are 9 more (minus Kirk and Harvey, add Edgin) already on the 25-man.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sandy, I think, will wait only to the winter meetings and if they haven't signed yet, he'll make some moves. I can't see any possibility that he waits until February to sign these guys.

He's already stated he wants closer by then so he can start working on the roster. If they don't sign or are still stuck in a stalemate by the winter meetings, I think both players are in jeopardy of being traded.

Anonymous said...

Glaring omission on Matt's list. He refers to it not as "Top Prospects" but "Top Under 25 Players". In that case, where is Ruben Tejada's name?

Mack Ade said...

Anon 1: it's all guesswork right now... we'll see

Anon 2: He probably was left off due to the fact he is far past the minimum at bats required to be considered a minor leaguer

Anonymous said...

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg are all on the list. It's not a list of minor leaguers. It is strictly a list of Under 25 players, in which case leaving Tejada off is a glaring omission.

Mack Ade said...

Anon 2:

OK... then it's my guess that he fucked up

Anonymous said...

Any Mets prospect list that still has Urbina and Morris on it cannot be considered a serious list.

Mack Ade said...

Well, to be honest, no team in baseball has 56 prospects

I talked to Akeel recently... he knows he needs to rebound this season

Anonymous said...

I guess he's updating it. Here is the text appearing on the same page right now:

"I posted this too early. There are quite a few players out of place as well as many missing. I'll be updating it soon. I'm using data from too many tables. I need to streamline this a little. I'll re-post it soon."

What was that headline that used to be on the Patrick Flood Blog? "Long Reign Ruben Tejada". :-)

Mack Ade said...

glad you and assisted this...

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