11/17/12

Trade-Prospect Analysis – Baltimore Orioles

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We’re deep in the heart of Hot Stove. It’s also the time when sites like Top Prospect Alert and Baseball America come out with their top prospect lists. Lastly, the Mets currently have three trading chips:

1.       3B David Wright
2.       SP RA Dickey
3.       Young pitching

Let’s start this series with the Baltimore Orioles and try and figure out if there is a fit here with the Mets.
Here are the top 20 Oriole prospects that came out this week from TPA and the level they will probably play 2013 at:

                MLB:      #1 – RHSP  Dylan Bundy
                                #4 – OF  L.J.. Hoes
                                #8 – OF Xavier Avery
                                #9 – 3B Ty Kelly
                                #18 – 1B Joe Mahoney

                AAA:      #3 – 3B  Jonathan Schoop
                                #10 – RHSP Mike Wright
                                #13 – RHRP Clay Schrader
                                #19 – 1B Tyler Townsend
                                #20 – RHSP Bobby Bunday

                A+:         #11 – OF Torsten Boss
                                #17 – LHSP Trent Howard

                AA:         #2 –RHSP  Kevin Gausman

                A:            #5 – LHSP  Eduardo Rodriguez
                                #6 – RHP Brandon Kline
                                #7 – SS Adrian Marin
                                #12 – 3B Nicky Delmonico
                                #14 – 3B Jason Esposito
                                #15 – LHRP  Lex Rutledge
                                #16 – RHSP Parker Bridwell

Next, let’s look at the long term contracts that currently exit on the books:

                                RF           Nick Markakis    $15.350/2013, $15.350/2014  (.298, 13-HR, 54-RBI)
                                2B           Brian Roberts     $10mil/2013, FA/2014 (66-AB)
                                CF           Adam Jones       $85.5mil through 2018  (.287, 32-HR, 82-RBI)
                                SS           J.J. Hardy             $7.417/2013, $7.417/2014  (.238, 22-HR, 68-RBI)
                                LHP        We-Yin Chen      $3.65/2013, $415/2014
                                RHP        Dylan Bundy       $1.245/yr. through 2015
                                RHP        Luis Ayala            $1mil/2013, FA/2014
                                3B           Wilson Betemit $2mil/2013  (.261, 12-HR, 40-RBI)

Wild Card:
                                3B           Manny Machado – suspended 50 games  - (.262, 191-AB, 7-HR, 26-RBI)
                                C             Matt Wieters – 23/HR, 83/RBI
                                SP           Chris Tillman – 15-ST, 9-3, 2.93
                                SP           Miguel Gonzalez – 18-G, 15-ST, 9-4, 3.25
                                SP           Brian Matusz -  34-G, 16-ST, 6-10, 4.87

Observation:

Boy, this is a team that gets it. Lots of youth and lots of talent.

Five members of their 25-man squad haven’t even entered their first arbitration year, and five of their top prospects are ready to graduate to the majors. The DH will go to one of the four top outfielders and the rotation is set. The only open here looks to be second base and I can’t see trading Daniel Murphy when the Mets don’t have anyone else right now to play that position. The last thing the Orioles need is another third baseman. No, this is how you build a successful baseball team.

Trade idea:

Frankly, I'd offer Dickey for Hoes and Gausman, but I would expect the phone to be hung up.

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