Good morning.
We have finished out position chain
analysis (which has taken those three words and jumbled them around for about
six different word salads) and we now move on to a one post analysis of…
The Current Mets
Rotation Candidates Under Contract For 2026 (much longer word
salad).
Here are the pitchers and what they are
under contract for, based on the projected 40-man competitive balance payroll:
Kodai Senga – 3
options left
2026
- $15,000,000 - can
opt out after 2025 season if he pitches 400 innings
between
2023-2025. As of 5/22: 222 innings
2027 - $15,000,000 -
Sean Manaea – 3 options left
2026 - $22,009,000
- no opt out
2027 - $22,009,000
- no opt out
Clay Holmes – 0 options left
2026 - $12,667,000
- can opt out after the
2026 season
2027 - $12,557,000
Griffin Canning – 1 option left
2026 - Projected Free Agent
Frankie Montas – 0 options left
2026 - $17,000,000
- can opt out after the 2025
season
David Peterson – 1 option left
2026 - Arb-4
2027 - Projected Free Agent
Tylor Megill – 1 option left
2026 - Arb-3
2027 - Arb-4
2028 - Projected Free Agent
Phil Blackburn – 0 options left
2026 - Projected Free Agent
Christian Scott – 2 options left
Pre-ARB
Nolan McLean - 3 options left
Pre-ARB
Some thoughts…
We’re looking for five started is 2026. There are 10 pitchers here.
It looks like some of these won’t be around.
Let’s assume the worst, but the
good news is Senga won’t be written about here.
There’s no way in hell that he is going to pitch 278 more innings this year.
But, for the sake of this exercise, let’s say that Canning, Montas, and Blackburn
sign with another team. That leaves us seven starters.
As for Senga, he will be back and he will remain the Mets SP1.
On my team, Manaea is the 2026 Mets SP2.
My SP3? Holmes.
This leaves four more starters on the board… Peterson, Megill, Scott,
and McLean.
Could there be more? Sure. Either Brandon Sproat or Blade Tidwell could make a deal with
the devil and starting looking like the second coming of Bob Feller and Sidd Finch. Most probably, they
won’t, but we can dream, can’t we? That leaves us with Peterson, Megill, Scott,
and McLean.
First, let’s talk Trevor… a recent scout told John Harper, after Megill’s outing
last Wednesday, that you just aren’t going to see a starter pitch four more
powerful innings than this guy did at the start. But, he also said that, like
in the past, Megill loses confidence immediately after something bad happens.
Bad happened kind of quickly when he decided to field a ball just in front of
the catcher. That’s not the play a pitcher should make. He knows better than
this and sailed the throw “right and over” Pete Alonso. The replay showed his
reaction… pure anger while catcher Luis Torrens tried to calm him down.
Trust me, I’m Irish and bi-polar. You just don’t calm down a second later. Can
he change and become a dominant innings eater? Do you spend your last option
and send him to Syracuse to, once again, be their SP1? No, because McLain is
probably that going forward. Or, do you put him in the pen as a multi-inning specialist
while doubling as your emergency SP6 in, God forbid that happens, so it could
happen, but, going forward on “my” 2026 team, Megill isn’t a 2026 5-man
rotation option.
Down to Peterson, Scott, and McLean… or a newbie… for two more slots.
Scott had TJS in September 2024. Opening day in 2026 is late March 2026.
That’s a little less than 18 months to properly heal. The typical healing period
for this injury is, according to my sources, 12-18 months. Meaning… there is a good chance he won’t be ready for
opening day. Maybe sometime in late April, but NOT late April. Maybe he will,
but, for this exercise, he will, at best, be rehabbing beginning in April… NOT
in my 2026 opening day rotation.
Down to Peterson, McLean, or a newbie for the two remaining slots.
Both remaining names here have a lot to prove to me the rest of this
season, for two totally different reasons. Peterson, for keeping his ERA below
4.00, not getting injured, and lasting eventually by the end of the 7th…
and Megill, for finishing this season excelling at the AAA level.
My guess is both will prove worthy of the 2026 opening day roster, but,
to make sure this rotation kills it in 2026, I would go out and sign a new FA
or trade for someone like Sandy Alcantara. The Mets could trade any
number of their 234 infield prospects, just for the current contract that runs
through 2026 ($17mil) plus a 2027 team option ($21mil). Steve has the money.
Right now, I only see Jonah Tong as a future Mets
starter, probably latest in 2027. A purchase of a guy like Alcantara makes so
much sense.
You?
Your thoughts on the opening day 2026
rotation???
Mets Prospect Group @bkfan09
Solid outing in the FCL for Daniel Guevara today
New York Mets @Mets
We have
made the following roster moves.
Mets Analytics @MetsAnalytics
Who’s Jared Young, today’s Mets DH fresh out of AAA?
A lefty
slugger who combined solid plate discipline with near-elite exit velocity,
Young is a solid option for Carlos Mendoza against Tony Gonsolin
Top Bat Speed Decliners (2024 to 2025)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6373938/2025/05/22/fantasy-baseball-2025-player-outlook-bat-speed/
Juan Soto might be doing the reverse-Pasquantino, trading a little power for
contact (perhaps due to the change in park?). That’s probably overthinking it.
Another thing to know is that he typically underperforms his x-stats. He’s
still elite, and I buy the rest-of-season projections that put him around
.274/.413/.515 going forward.
Brandon Sproat
This was
rather the opposite, as Sproat has yet to hit even 99 MPH with his fastball.
Sproat cannot overcome his fastball's poor shape in this lower velocity band,
which leaves it as an average offering. Due to this inefficiency, Sproat will
likely be more effective as a sinkerballer, which would lead to a heavily
depressed strikeout rate. From his low 3/4 slot, his sinker generates over
17" of arm-side run and helps jam RHH on the inner third. He doesn't
generate many whiffs on the offering, but it has effectively limited damage
this season. His changeup always flashed plus-plus potential thanks to his low
90s velocity and depth, but he is not seeing the same shape this season. The
pitch closely resembles his sinker and has been hit much harder. Sproat's trio
of breaking balls were also a highlight of his arsenal as it gave him plenty of
options to mix and match his offerings, however the feel for each pitch seems
to have degraded to the point that none are returning positive results.Along
with all this negativity surrounding his arsenal, Sproat has seen his command
falter this season. He is throwing his fastball and sinker in the strike zone
at a below average rate, while leaving far too many of his secondaries over the
plate.
There really is not much redeeming about Sproat's season thus far, and it is safe to say that he has been leapfrogged by multiple arms in the Mets system. The potential he flashed in 2024 gives me hope that he belongs as a Top 100 Prospect, but his results do not paint that picture.
Automated Ball-Strike System
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6366519/2025/05/19/automated-ball-strike-system-mlb/
When Major League Baseball tested the ABS challenge system
this spring, players and fans watched the animations on the scoreboard and
assumed they were fully accurate. But the technology, it turns out, is not
quite as precise as many assumed.
The margin for error that caught Corbin Burnes’ attention
means a slight disparity might exist between the exact location of each pitch
and where the technology places it. So players are asking league officials
about how large that disparity is, and whether it raises doubts about the value
of using ABS. And those officials, at a meeting of the sport’s joint
competition committee on May 1, acknowledged the margin for error’s presence.
Burnes, one of four player representatives on the committee,
told The Athletic that the margin for error was close to a half-inch. In other
words, the system could place a pitch that was one-tenth inside the strike zone
four-tenths of an inch outside the strike zone.
The likely outcomes, MLB officials say, are not that extreme.
All ball-tracking systems include margin for error. The league uses the same
Hawk-Eye ball-tracking technology for ABS that it does to compile reams of
performance-related data, and clubs, players and media do not question the
accuracy of that information.
Top 50 potential MLB free agents for
2025-26 offseason:
Griffin Canning, RHP, Mets
Age: 29
IP: 47
1/3 SO: 46
ERA+: 157
Career
WAR: 6.2
The
Angels gave up on Canning and traded him to the Braves in the offseason for
outfielder/DH Jorge Soler. Atlanta immediately non-tendered Canning. But the
Mets saw something in him and signed him in December. They had a plan for
Canning, a second round pick in the 2017 draft, and have turned around the
former prospect’s career. He’s 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA over nine starts. The Mets’
front office and field staff deserve a lot of credit.
Huascar Brazobán
One of
the best examples is the communication behind veteran reliever Huascar
Brazobán’s breakout.
Following
a trade from the Miami Marlins last year, Brazobán struggled. In his second
appearance with the team, he allowed three runs in the seventh inning of a
one-run loss to the Los Angeles Angels. His body language, coaches recall,
relayed complete disappointment. He didn’t need to tell anyone he felt he let
the team down; it was obvious.
“Brazobán
wants to be great,” Mets bullpen coach Jose Rosado said. “When things weren’t
going the right way for him, he would get down on himself, be hard on himself.”
For the
rest of last season, Brazobán struggled with his confidence. He had a 5.14 ERA
in 21 innings with the Mets. The Mets coaching staff didn’t give up on him.
They kept prioritizing instances where they could tell him simple reminders
like “it is OK to give up a run” and “just focus on the next pitch.”
The Mets
invested time in rebuilding Brazobán’s swagger since it plummeted to an
all-time low in that game against the Angels. Now, it’s paying off.
“It was a
turning point in his career,” Rosado said.
By throwing another 2 1/3 scoreless innings in the Mets’ 5-1 win on Wednesday, Brazobán lowered his ERA to 0.90. He ranks second on the club in games (20) and innings (27). He has 26 strikeouts and six walks.
Brazobán’s emergence from barely making the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as one of manager Carlos Mendoza’s most-trusted high-leverage relievers is one of the Mets’ most promising developments this season.
Throughout
the first two months, Brazobán has maintained his confidence, whether he allows
a run in an outing or not. On April 18 against the St. Louis Cardinals,
Brazobán filled in for closer Edwin Díaz. He blew the save, giving up a leadoff
home run to Brendan Donovan. But from there, things didn’t spiral like they
have in the past. Brazobán struck out the next three batters. In the bottom of
the ninth inning, Francisco Lindor hit a walk-off home run.
Jim Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball
"Ruth
could have lived to be 150 and have tottered into Yankee stadium or down a
street in any city or hamlet in the country on age-tortured legs, and there
always would have been quick glances, the gleam of recognition and whispered
words, relayed as a smoke signal:
“Babe Ruth – Babe Ruth – Babe Ruth.
The
'Bambino' was that kind of a guy – unique, picturesque in his misshapen bulk
and vast expanse of swarthy countenance, utterly unforgettable.
He was
more than a man. He was a symbol. Baseball players might come and baseball
players might go. But, regardless of their achievements, none ever could
supplant Ruth in the public mind as the personification of everything that was
great and spectacular in the game.
Truly a
veritable Paul Bunyan character in performance and with a physique to match,
Ruth had that indefinable something called color. Other players might be huge,
others might hit even more home runs during a season. But the 'Bambino' had
that inborn instinct to make every deed and move exciting.”
“Word
Picture of Babe Ruth”
Whitney Martin, 1947
"The
fact that he was able to play that whole season was just amazing. Your body is
beginning to shut down. Your muscles are getting disconnected from your brain.
And yet he was able to play every single game, Gehrig still had 29 home runs,
he still drove in 114 and he was still the first baseman on a team that won the
World Series. How does he do that? How
does anybody do that?
You can
make an argument that it’s the greatest individual performance in baseball
history."
“Last
Ride of the Iron Horse”
Dan Joseph
"You
have to get knocked down to realize how people really feel about you. I've realized that more than ever
lately. The other day, I was on my way to the car. It was hailing, the streets
were slippery and I was having a tough time of it.
I came to
a corner and started to slip. But before I could fall, four people jumped out
of nowhere to help me. When I thanked them, they all said they knew about my
illness and had been keeping an eye on
me."
Lou Gehrig, quoted in Sport, October 1948
"I've never seen anybody pitch like that before."
Al Kaline
on Bob Gibson, 1968 World Series
In the
ninth inning, Dick McAuliffe singled, giving the Tigers hope. But Gibson
proceeded to strike out Kaline to tie Sandy Koufax’s single-game World Series record of 15 Ks, which had been
set in 1963.
When
catcher Tim McCarver stepped toward the mound, trying to tell Gibson that he
had tied Koufax, the Cardinals’ star waved him back behind home plate.
But once
again McCarver stood his ground.
The
catcher pointed at the scoreboard, which now heralded the accomplishment. Finally, the pitcher realized
what the ruckus was all about.
“All
right, now give me the ball,” Gibson told McCarver.
Bob
Gibson holds the record for most strikeouts in a playoff game with 17. Gibson
owns a postseason record of 9 GS, 7-2,
1.89 ERA, 81 IP, 55 H, 17 BB, 92 SO.
The 17
strikeout game was Game 1 of the 1968 World Series vs the Detroit Tigers.
Steve Balboni to a reporter after hitting a grand slam:
“Hitting
your first grand slam is a thrill. I’ll always remember this.”
Reporter:
“You hit a grand slam two years ago, Steve.”
Balboni:
“Oh yeah. I guess I forgot about that
one.”
MACK –
Yogi is smiling somewhere after reading this…
26 comments:
I remember Huascar shutting down Mets when he pitched for Marlins. I thought he’d be nice on the Mets.
Got an IN FOCUS piece, full of more good stuff, coming up at 9am
Actually, I did too but I never expected a return this big.
Another big Stearns move
Love Brazoban. Read Diaz is likely to opt out and not re-sign. Could Brazoban, who did not even pitch in the big leagues until his early 30s, close for the Mets in 2026?
Incredible Lou Gehrig last full season story.
You know I am going to write about the fences again in my next article after last night, don’t you?
Peterson is MY ACE. He used to generate doubts, but no longer. It seems that Brett Baty is in the process of doing likewise.
Montas pitched for Brooklyn yesterday, finally, a little shaky, but of course, Brooklyn scored 8 runs.
Canning was thrown in the trash heap by the Angels and has become Mets treasure. Eric Orze and Mike Vasil were dumped in the trash by the Mets. This year, the two have combined for 30 relief outings, 50 innings, just 10 earned runs. (1.80). Mel Allen said “How ‘bout that?”
After Sunday, Mets face terrible White Sox who, naturally, have won 2 straight.
Sproat? The next time I write about him, it will be when he dominates.
I say Christian Scott and Nolan McLean will be factors in the 2026 rotation.
Diaz and Brazo
I too expect him to opt out, especially if he keeps up this dominance
As for H, let's see if he fades first
Says Dove man by the way !
Don't fence me in, Thomas
Teams have 5 starters and around 8 relievers
Teams have around 30-35 trying to impress
No one throws someone impressing them in the garbage
Garbage happens
Write about Sprite instead
Dove
You are no longer invisible
I package Vientos,Sproat and Acuna,trade em for Alcantra
Any consideration here for Rumble Ponies' Zach Thorton as a possible candidate for the 2026 Mets rotation?
Thorn is probably a year away
I would do this
Tom?
Gary?
If Alcantara is healthy, that trade works for me.
My brother (who forgets very little) recalled that the Mets backed out of any Garrett Crochet deal last year because they did not want to part with Sproat. In hindsight, that would be a mistake. Big mistake.
Thornton was brilliant in AA last night. 6.1 perfect innings, I believe. Of course, AA teams don't hit much. But to do that this early in 2025, I'd think he has a chance to be a Mets rotation contender next spring, too. Sensational start to his 2025.
No Mack no Alcantra for me
Can't really see Diaz opting out. Who is going to give him 20m per year again. He may get additional years but not at that salary.
Baty: let's see what happens when the league re-adjusts to him. (like Viento) If he can do that then I will feel much more comfortable.
The Mets don't need to trade prospects for Alcantra. They'll be fine with Manea, Senga, Holmes, Peterson, Megill, McLean and Montas to start 2026. Smith and Tong to follow, and maybe even Sproat.
Hey Ernest. Congrats on the Uncle Steve love. It’s well-deserved. Our boy Zack “nothing but strikes” Thornton just getting more and more impressive. 6+ perfect? Are you kidding me? 6’3 lefty from a very athletic family looks like he fits the bill of a guy with a real shot, and he’s gotta be entering the conversation for a long look next season.
Don’t know if i agree with the starters for next year
Holmes will opt out (I believe he has that clause and stern will not sign him at the money he is performing)
Peterson who I gave up on years ago has proven he is deserving
(Sign him or trade him but just let him play out and get nothing)
Scott was performing greater than sproat so he may be a higher sealing
And we really need to wait to have the amunition to pull the big stud
(Skenes or Witt or a Gunnar) when it’s time
Vito here relax Diaz ain’t going nowhere unless he tanks this season. If the Mets want Alonso he’s staying won’t be going nowhere either. If he leaves Cohen replaces him with a big free agent $igning.
How’s Alcantra doing this year?
Hi Mack. I see next year’s rotation locks as: Senga, Peterson, Holmes, and Manaea. Montas would have to pitch very well when he comes back to consider opting out of $17 mil for ‘26 (we should be so lucky), and the FO clearly likes him based on that contract, so if he doesn’t opt out, and his arm doesn’t fall off between now and then, he’s probably #5. It’s possible that they try to extend Peterson before he enters his final arbitration year in ‘26. He turns 30 in September, (4/$80?) but either way he’ll be here next season. I do think that Tong, McLean, Megill and Thornton will all get a serious look in the spring if a spot opens or if they go with 6 SP. and given that depth, I do not expect them to either spend on SP in the FA market or trade prospects for a starter.
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