TASTY - AND UNTASTY - TIDBITS:
Paul Blackburn is ready:
Seven shutout innings, one hit allowed in AAA, and Mack has moved Paul up to Red Prospect Status! Just kidding…he is rehabbed and ready to return.
Paul B pitched the night after would-be prospect ace Brandon Sproat (1-4, 6.69 ERA, low K rate) basically croaked again. I would have to guess Sproat is slipping down in the Mets prospect pitcher power rankings.
In his career, in AAA, he is 2-6, 7.06 in 65 IP, fanning just 48, while walking 28 and hitting 8, with a 1.53 WHIP. Pretty ugly.
Anyone have any thoughts on what it will take for Sproat to go from dominated to dominator?
I was expecting him to be a dominator. I guess I drank the Kool Aid.
METS WIN BEHIND BRETT BATY’S HITTING PROWESS
The new team leader…Brett friggin’ Baty.
THREE RBI’S? Wow. 4 HRs, 10 RBIs in 36 at bats in May.
Megill made a mistake, but was awesome.
Do they ever, in his career, score for him? No. Score some darned runs early for him. The offense sucketh, but finally showed a flinch, a flicker of life last night. Worst 30-20 team in baseball.
Moving on…
MANAGEMENT HAS TO BE ROOTING FOR DREW GILBERT
Of all writers who write about any and all things involving the Mets organization, I was probably the toughest on Drew Gilbert in 2024.
I need not rehash that.
Today, I come to defend him.
He had persistence of his 2024 leg maladies this spring and as a result, got a late start on the season, starting out in rehab.
So did Jose Reyes once upon a time, May I remind you.
Drew, after rehab, has been back in AAA for a while now.
While his numbers through Sunday don't scream "superstar", we need to keep in mind that missing a lot of last year and then having the leg issue flare up again this spring for a while could result in some offensive sluggishness.
His combined numbers aren't bad at all:
.269/.396/.435.
I DO LIKE the walk rate. One every 6.5 PAs.
Strikeouts at 18 in 134 PAs? Once every 7.5 PAs? Excellent.
His BABIP of only .284 is no doubt temporarily low.
It was .332 in pre-injury 2023. Get the BABIP up, the average follows.
I almost think that most of his playing time so far this spring has been his spring training. I am now looking for him to explode upwards. Why? The excellent walk and K rates, that's why.
I am also happy to see one other thing: Only one steal attempt in 31 games. Make sure the legs are 150% before stealing. In fact…
My advice? Save your steals for when you get promoted to the Mets, Drew.
You'll be ready for that before long, at least for a back up OF role. It seems the Mets offense needs your energy.
MARK VIENTOS WOES
Stats, almost always, are informative. I think they are, here:
Through Sunday, Mark Vientos with RISP is 6 for 44 (.136).
- Bad.
"Late and Close"? 5 for 29, no HRs, 4 RBIs.
- Bad.
He's been up 34 times where counts got to two strikes. 15 of those ended up in walks. Otherwise, 2 for 19.
- Bad.
In 175 PAs, he's gone to some form of 2 strike count 91 times, over 50%, a high number. In those counts (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2), he is hitting .146/.231/.232 with 1 HR and 37 K.
- Bad.
That level of (frankly) ineptitude screams out to me:
REDUCE THE % OF PLATE APPEARANCES REACHING 2 STRIKES!
HOW?
SWING MORE EARLY IN COUNTS!
I think most of the above malaise comes from taking too many first strikes.
If you can't (or won't) correct it, trouble lies ahead.
For Mark. And for the Mets.
He is in an RBI line up slot in the order. All that’s missing are the RBIs.
RETROSPECTIVE LOOK:
After a surprisingly successful season for Vientos in 2024, I acknowledged that success.
But I wrote this cautionary note, in blue below, November 2024.
Those comments then still seem to be quite pertinent, but also appear to have gone unheeded.
(I say this based on the above statistical analysis, and not as a professional hitting coach, which I am certainly not):
In September and the playoffs, Vientos fanned 57 times in 37 games.
Clearly that is not good.
Without exhaustive analysis, my sense is he takes far too many first pitch fastballs for strikes.
When you strike out that much, you can't afford to give away “strike one”.
Forget about working the pitcher.
There are times where that is worthwhile, as in when a pitcher is clearly wild, but it is to Mark's strikeout disadvantage.
Back to May 2025...Mark needs to keep this is mind:
Every day, Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams, and Jacob Reimer get a day closer to taking away Mark's job. Not to mention Brett Baty.
Mauricio in 3 games in Syracuse is 7 for 11 with 2 HRs and 2 walks. Hmmm.
Knowing I do not know it all, I asked a friend of mine to weigh in about Mark.
He wrote:
Analyzing the Decline
PITCHERS HAVE MADE THEIR MOVES IN THE CHESS GAME!
Several factors have contributed to Vientos’ offensive struggles in 2025:
1. Increased Exposure to Breaking Balls: Pitchers have adjusted their approach, throwing breaking balls to Vientos 47.4% of the time, up from 40% in 2024. This shift is disrupting his timing and reducing his effectiveness at the plate.
2. Struggles Against Fastballs: Vientos is hitting just .095 against fastballs in 2025, a significant drop from previous seasons. This decline suggests difficulties in capitalizing on pitches he previously handled well.
3. Altered Batted Ball Profile: His pull rate has increased to approximately 52%, up from a career average of 39.6%. This change may indicate he’s out in front of pitches more often, potentially leading to weaker contact and easier outs.
4. Plate Discipline Improvements Not Yielding Results: Despite chasing fewer pitches outside the zone and improving his zone contact rate by 8%, Vientos’ enhanced plate discipline hasn’t translated into better offensive numbers. This discrepancy suggests that while he’s making more contact, the quality of contact may not be sufficient.
Conclusion: Mark Vientos’ decline in offensive production during the 2025 season appears to stem from a combination of factors, including adjustments by opposing pitchers, struggles against fastballs, changes in his batted ball profile, and a disconnect between improved plate discipline and offensive output.
While the underlying metrics show some positive trends, translating these into tangible results remains a challenge. Continued adjustments and time may be necessary for Vientos to regain his 2024 form.
I have some smart friends, huh?
(No, Mack, he declined to write here. Too busy.)
RISP BLUES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY: The Mets are 4th to last in batting average with runners in scoring position, hitting a paltry .214 in that regard. I clearly way overrated this team’s hitting potential in February.
The Mets’ RISP woes put them in the same neighborhood as the White Sox and Pirates. Brothers, this should not be so.
The median team in MLB with RISP is hitting a substantially higher .250.
And remember, the Mets hitters have not had to face the Mets pitchers, who have the lowest ERA in baseball. So, that .214 with RISP? They’re probably a little worse than that stat indicates.
Bases empty? Nice and relaxed are they. Second best at .260.
Tells me they choke. (Am I being too blunt?)
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Ronny Mauricio (photo courtesy of the great Herm Card) went 7 for 11 in his first three AAA games, with power and walks, as noted above.
Call him up. ASAP.
SPOTLIGHT ON BRENDAN GIRTON
He may be a new name to you. A 10th round righty in 2024, on May 13 in Brooklyn, he threw 5 innings of one hit ball and fanned 9. Nothing wrong with that.
On May 20, he went 4.2 IP, 2 runs allowed and 3 more walks.
YTD, he is 2-1, 3.81, with 36 Ks in 28 IP.
Dylan Gee was a 21st rounder, and he did all right in the bigs. 51-48, 4.09.
Seth Lugo, a 34th rounder, has done much more than all right.
Girton can do all right, or maybe more than all right, too.
His control in college frankly was bad - 88 walks in 129 innings, and so far as a pro in 2025, 17 walks in 28 IP. Refining his control will be his ticket upwards.
New York Mets bullpen arms (which he may well get a chance to become in a year or two) can't be walking hitters in bunches.
FCL HOT HITTERS
While many FCL hitters struggle to get untracked, there are 3 packing heat:
Through Tuesday, 19 y/o C Julio Zayas (.344), 18 y/o OF Eddie Lantigua (.333), and 20 y/o OF Randy Guzman (.333). They hit well on Wednesday, too.
Possible 2028 major leaguers? One never knows. But I think especially the first two are strong candidates.
Lantigua is a top 30, while Zayas is an RBI machine in his career to date, with 66 in 321 at bats.
Keep a sharp eye on both.
Happy Thursday.
15 comments:
royhobbs7
Mauricio is ready. And we need his bat and speed in the lineup!
Hay,what have you done for me lately?
Gilbert's K rate is a breath of fresh air. So many guys are all or nothing. I think he'll be a good MLB player, just needs more time to knock the rust off
Maybe Vientos would benefit from an assignment in Syracuse.
Last night was significant because it appears that Brett Baty is now out every day starting 3B, with Vientos mostly a DH. This is the right move, as Baty, while not a gold glove candidate, is an order of magnitude better defender. I think this will help both players… Baty with his confidence and Vientos, who no longer has to deal with the terror of going out there with a glove every inning and praying that the ball isn’t hit his way. Let him focus on hitting.
One more low minors arm to keep an eye on. Irving Cota, 6’5 RHP from Mexico who just turned 21, went 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6K, and threw 44 of 57 pitches for strikes. Like most young pitchers, walks have been an issue for him ever since he started in the DSL three years ago, but this season he seems to have cleaned up his control significantly. I’m not sure how hard he throws, but add his name to the growing list of exciting low-minors pitching prospects who seem to be coming out of the woodwork to announce their potential this season.
He did just write here
Type your handle in Roy
The arms to watch in the minors grow every day
Aamons a day ago
Cota yesterday
Lanthier today
So many topics to think about, but the RISP is the one that really gets me. It seems like it is always the Mets, whether they carry a strong lineup or a weak one. Maybe it is just a narrow perspective since I'm not usually watching a White Sox game. Since baseball is all about ups and downs, there will come a reversal in this trend. When it does, games will be very fun to watch. Can't wait.
All good comments, gents. I will keep an eye on Cota. So many guys doing very well in AA thru rookie ball, but many are struggling, too, mostly some hitters. The hot ones will rise. The struggling ones need to figure it out.
The ball can not go through the webbing of Vientos' glove if he is the DH.
Fortunately, Tom there are fewer spots for hitters than pitchers, so we need fewer of them to pan out. For the first time in what seems like forever, we do seem to have a handful of future MLB position players/offensive threats in the system, even though a bunch of them are still a couple of years away.
So…I wrote about Girton several days and no one commented….except Girton. How? Tuesday night, 4.2 shutout IP, 8 Ks. You go, Girton!
Just watched a clip of Nolan Ryan picking up his 7th no hitter at age 44, fanning 16. 25 years after his Mets debut. No one like him. No one ever will be like him.
Girton threw 5 perfect innings, six Ks, on June 14. He’s good.
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