5/29/25

Paul Articulates - Six things to evaluate about the Mets

The season is more than one third complete.  The Mets have played well so far this season, but not well enough.  Does that sound like someone with high expectations?  There are millions of Mets fans expressing the same sentiment.  The signing of Juan Soto and the realization that the pitching lab investment is more valuable than imagined have brought us to expect the best.

So much went well to start the season with Lindor and Alonso on top of their games.  Baty's resurgence and Acuna's speed and glove contributions were a nice add and the performance of the pitching staff was an overachievement to say the least.  The Mets ran off to a comfortable lead in the NL East.

Eventually Francisco and Pete came back to earth, there were a few glitches on the mound, and the team hit a speed bump.  It was certainly not a surprise, but it did expose those things that were not doing well all along that were being masked.

So as we head into the middle third of the season, let's take a look at the aspects that are functioning and those that are not.

1) Pitching - the pitching is still great despite a few bobbles recently.  Megill and Canning each had a rough outing in the past week, but we have seen some gritty performances by Senga and Peterson on days that they didn't have their best stuff.  The Mets still have the best team ERA in the league by a long shot and for an entire team to be under 3.0 this far into the season is a real positive.  Edwin Diaz is eleven for eleven in save opportunities, and he seems to be getting sharper. 

Earlier in the season he was challenging fate by allowing baserunners on and then conceding stolen bases before shutting it down.  Now he seems to be dominating more of the hitters.  His performance against the Dodgers was special.  However, he still has not developed the ability to hold runners and that will be needed somewhere down the stretch.  

Another positive is that the staff is still holding together without Montas, Manaea, and Blackburn.  Although it is not a given that they would step in and make the pitching more dominant, they are certainly capable and depth gets very important in the dog days of summer.  Overall I am very impressed with the pitching.

2) Hitting - the bats are no where near where they should be this year.  Other than the initial surge by Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso and the hope building resurgence of Baty, the lineup has left a lot to be desired.  We are still impatiently waiting for Soto to erupt and we pine for the Vientos that was destroying baseballs last year.  Nimmo, McNeil, and Alvarez, where are these guys?  As a team, they hold the 16th best batting average at .245 and the ninth best OPS at .733.  

This is not what one would predict when looking at the lineup.  Of course the batting average with RISP gets all the highlights - so much so that even David Stearns is being asked what is going on.  His answer?  Don't sweat it - they are doing the right things, just not seeing results today.  

Should we buy that?  Maybe - baseball is a funny game, and you rarely see players perform to their average.  They surge and they slump.  We have too many in the latter category, but all it takes is a spark and it takes off.  We miss you Candelita!

3) Base Running - LuisAngel Acuna makes his case to remain on this roster with his feet.  He runs the bases freely and aggressively, but not recklessly.  He is a speedier version of Francisco Lindor who also has a lot of base running savvy.  These guys can turn one base into a serious offensive threat.  

Personally I would like to see a lot more of it.  Lately, Soto has shown us some skill in reading pitchers - he has swiped some bases where the play does not look close, yet he is not renown for his speed.  There is enough speed on this team to play a little small ball even though that strategy is out of vogue these days.  But when the bats aren't getting it done, let the feet start moving!

4) Fielding - I am not sure what to say here.  There have been games that look like the Keystone Mets and there are games where their defense has saved the day.  The catchers/pitchers have done very well limiting opponents' running games.  Baty has sparkled at third.  Pete continues to dig everything thrown at him.  But I am still left feeling like it should be better.  Too many lapses could cost critical games when we are playing those all-important NL East rivals.

5) Last year's heroes - Mark Vientos showed everyone that he belonged last year.  He had a power surge that cemented his place in the lineup.  He delivered in the clutch as well as having an overall great offensive season at .266/.322/.516 in 2024.  We are still waiting for that same Mark Vientos to step to the plate this year.  I think it is "when", not "if", so Mendoza should find a way to feed him at-bats even if Baty is the right guy on third.  

Juan Soto was a hero for another team last year and a different one the year before that.  But regardless of uniform, this is someone that you always expect to put up great numbers.  He has not done that to date, and for a while I was very concerned about his effort.  I am no longer worried about effort - I see him hustling and finding ways to contribute even as he still struggles to find the rhythm at the plate.  These two are due for a turnaround and I predict that it will come in this middle third of the season.

6) Manager - Carlos Mendoza and his staff have done a terrific job so far this year.  Mendoza has kept a deep bench of players active, finding roles for many to contribute in each game.  He has managed the pitching very well, finding the delicate balance between patience and urgency.  It does help to have almost all of the pitching staff throwing well, because a decision to bring in someone new with the bases loaded has not blown up in his face as much as it does for most managers.  He is blessed with great personnel and I think he is making them all better.

So as we turn this corner into the middle stretch of the season with a strong Phillies team to run down and an rejuvenated Braves team right behind us, it is going to come down to improving those weak points and keeping the foot on the gas.  Games like last night's loss to the woeful White Sox are going to hurt in a close pennant race at the end of the season.  Sweeping the Rockies is a must.  This is the time to pile up the wins.  Let's go Mets!

26 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Morning

1. Pitching

I'm starting to see the starters back up a little. In fact, Canning hasn't seen the 4th inning in his last TWO starts

I believe this will correct itself with the return of Blackburn (give him a spot start and change the current roation to 6 days to give the current 5 a breather) and then Montas and Manaea

Then, the Mets need one more solid guy in the pen. My vote would be either Montas or Megill

Mack Ade said...

2. Hitting

Sadly, there is no solution to this.

I will tell you this with certainty... hitters don't get hot sitting on the bench.

Keep plating the same lineups you played when they were winning, in the slot they were batting. Examply... put Soto back in the 2nd hole

Vientos was right yesterday. If this is the worse they will hit, and this is their winning percentage, imagine what it will be when this spell is in the past

Mack Ade said...

3. Base running

I agree with you

Stealing second does a few things

It puts more runners into scoring position (don't go there...) and it could create more throwing errors that would advance your runner or runners even more

Create more runs until they create themselves

Mack Ade said...

4. Fielding

The current team has the ability to create exciting defensive plays, but, overall, it's a badly constructed defensive team. I even see Lindor regression here.

In the case of 2025... itis what it is.

Go more defensive and you create less offense

A solid "live with it" category

Mack Ade said...

5. Heroess

Sadly, right now, you go with who is hot and pray the team's offense will stabilize.

This starts with not taking Bary out of the lineup on any day

Again, batters don't get hot with their bat in the rack

Mack Ade said...

6. Mendy

I agree

My only questioning here is I wonder why he has had no team meetings during this slump period. If he did, I missed that being reported

JoeP said...

Hitting to me is the biggest problem. Can you believe the only 2 hitters on this team that are hitting above expectations are Torrens and Taylor....unbelievable. We are getting nothing out of Soto, Nimmo, McNeil, Alverez and Vientos. Baty, while better is still...meh. Lindor and Pete came back to earth. Our hitting is horrible.

I'm banking on one thing: it has to get better because it really can't get much worse.

Mack Ade said...

Baty is currently "meh"?

Have you checked the May splits both offensively and defensively?

JoeP said...

The pitching is next. Canning and McGil are coming back to earth. I've said this for a while now, McGil to the bullpen. If Manaea doesn't return to form, we are in deep doo doo. Montas and Blackburn are dreck.

JoeP said...

Mack, I didn't say Baty was crap, I'm just not overly impressed. He gives up too many swings and AB's for me to be overly optimistic. YET. I like him and will continue to hope he keeps developing.

Tom Brennan said...

I want to correct one impression...Megill was excellent in his last two starts, only missing some length into games. Canning feels like he will correct towards his career norm, which may be occurring now. Pick one, and I pick Megill every time. Look at his record in his last 7 outings last year and his pitching this year. It is strong. Don't expect SP1 from him, and enjoy the ride. Don't bump him for Blackburn.

This team's hitters need to rampage. Colorado has a 5.24 road ERA - in other words, they suck. 30 runs for the Mets on 45 hits, or bust. It is past time to rampage.

Jon G said...

Vientos' HR yesterday was a good sign. Hitting it out to right field is also good. He went that way a lot last year. Yes, he did strike out 3 times, but I believe most of his swings (and foul balls) were on pitches in the zone. Lindor also struck out 3 times I think, but he was swinging at high fast balls out of the zone. Those balls are unhittable. He needs to correct that.

Tom Brennan said...

Nimmo and McNeil are showing signs of life. And Nimmo's 8 HRs and 27 RBIs in 1/3 of a season offset some of his struggles.

If the Big 3 stop being the Unproductive 3, the hitting should explode. Soto and Lindor (in May) have been weak, and even Pete hitting .210 in his last 15 games...time to erupt.

And can someone tell Manaea the offseason is over?

Anonymous said...

Agree Tom, although I still think that in a fully healthy situation, Megill is a great bullpen candidate because he can give 3-4 dominant innings at a time.

JoeP said...

Tom, I must respectively disagree. Nimmo has been God awful for a year now. Half his RBI's came in 2 games. I will be very happy if he goes back to his old ways. High OBP. Also, how can you say McGil was excellent, he can't get out of the 5th inning. He belongs in the bullpen where he can go balls to the wall for 1 or 2 innings.

Jon G said...

I like that Nimmo walked twice. I want the old Brandon back

JoeP said...

Me too Jon. Top of the order, .380 OBP, drawing walks, working counts. Whoever changed his approach destroyed him.

Tom Brennan said...

Nimmo was hurt in the 2nd half last year. This year, he is hitting - well - like Juan Soto. As in, underwhelming. So far. May they be like Cleon Jones 1968. Jones was hitting .224 in late May and finished at .297.

Nimmo should be the new Nimmo on strike 0, and the old Nimmo on strikes 1 and 2. He is also getting older (uh-oh?)

Oddly, Nimmo has 118 career HRs and is hitting .259, and Ed Kranepool had 118 career homers at .261. Eddie was up 2,000 more times to get his 118.

Mack Ade said...

Joe

Canning hasn'r gotten out of the third inning for the last TWO STARTS

Mack Ade said...

I too wouldn't bump him but I would give the entire rotation a breather with a spot start for Blackburn thrown in

Tom Brennan said...

JoeP, fair criticism of Nimmo, but it is relatively early, and maybe we just saw the pivot from him yesterday. It is time for everyone in the line up to pound the Rockies hurlers mercilessly.

Megill - part of his problem has been that yes, he seems to slip a bit starting in inning 5, but the Mets seem to score very little for him in the first 4-5 innigs, at which point, Mendoza is more concerned with downside risk. If they'd score more for him, get him a few more runs each time out, he'd be left in longer. Case in point was the Boston start, where he hiccupped slightly in the 5th after he tore thru Boston hitters for 4 innings. In that game, there was an excuse - Crochet was pitching. But it seems lots of times, the opposing pitcher is mediocre, but shutting down the Mets offense.

Simply, the offense is the one area that has been below average. I thought this team had a chance to break the Mets scoring season record. No chance now.

The bright side is they hit awfully right up to the end of May 2024, then had the best offense in baseball for the rest of the season. Maybe they are ready to repeat that.

So, I repeat: crush Rockies pitching.

Tom Brennan said...

On the relief switch for Megill, I am not completely adverse to that, but I think he is strong and pulling him from the rotation might be a big mistake. He is 13th in the majors in Ks, and his rate per inning for starters is about 4th. They pulled Nolan Ryan once upon a time, too, stuck him in the pen - 31 Mets games as a reliever for Ryan.

Not to compare the two. Ryan was Ryan.

But 72 Ks in 53 Megill innings is a killer rate. Let him stay in the rotation, at least for now. BTW, he has 10 career relief innings, and 5 runs allowed.

Lastly, under no circumstances should Stearns send Megill down.

Anonymous said...

I would put Canning in the pen except that he has walked too many batters in his last two starts. Megill could be the guy to go to the pen.Blackburn is supposed to start against the Dodgers shortly! He has looked good at AAA.

JoeP said...

Fair points guys. Mack, you are right Canning has been scuffling lately. He should be the first to go. I fear he is coming back to his norm and will probably be the first to go when Manaea and co. return.

I did not realize that McGil's K rate was so high. More to my point that he would be a good reliever for an inning or two. I hear you Tom about his relief appearances...not good. But a very small sample size. Look how good Garrett has done. McGill has a similar arsenal.

Looking on the bright side (for a change), the hitting can't really get any worse.

Anonymous said...

If they get Manaea Montas and Blackburn back maybe the can sell high and trade Canning at the deadline for a bat.

Anonymous said...

Blackburn? He’s a journeyman, I go with Canning and McGilluntil they implde