5/21/25

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Fans Have Seen This Movie Before


It’s time for a bit of a history lesson.  Think back to the year 2005 when the Mets were frankly a team in search of a driving force to take them into contention as an elite baseball power.  

The Mets gave out their largest ever free agent contract, a seven year deal for a previously unheard of $119 million for a 28 year old center fielder by the name of Carlos Beltran who had been rejected by other suitors (including the Yankees).

He came on board to great fanfare but in his first turn through the Shea Stadium doors he didn’t exactly lead the whole team change that the club had envisioned.  

During his Mets “rookie” season Beltran was fighting a knee problem and finished with less than stellar numbers.  By year’s end he finished with a .266 batting average, accumulating just 16 HRs, 78 RBIs and 17 SBs.  He was up 650 times, so it’s not as if the season was cut short.  

They were fine numbers by most players’ standards, but a pale comparison into what was expected when the huge contract was extended to him.  The Mets had a mediocre season in 2005, finishing in third place with a record of 83 and 79. 


Now with full health and year of laser focus behind him, Beltran changed things dramatically in 2006.  During that year he raised all of his key performance metrics.  The batting average jumped a bit to .275 but the power numbers were eye popping.  He slammed 41 HRs, drove in 116 and stole 18 bases.  He won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and finished 4th in the MVP voting.  

His 8.2 WAR rating was heretofore unknown in Mets offensive history.  Even Hall of Famer Mike Piazza plateaued at a full season value of 5.1.  Needless to say, the Mets finished in first place and made it into the playoffs before losing the NLCS before the infamous bat-on-shoulder ending for a called strike out against Adam Wainwright.

Fast forward to the offseason of 2024 into 2025 and we see on an even grander scale a parallel pursuit of a 28 year old slugger for unheard of money.  Juan Soto was on nearly every team’s must-sign list but the numbers were threatening to push all but a small handful of suitors out of the bidding.  The New York Mets extended a 15 year deal to Soto for $765 million and history was made as the largest baseball contract ever offered received Soto’s signature.


A lot like Beltran’s debut with the Mets, Soto has started off with a fine but unremarkable journey his first time around in orange and blue.  To date Soto is hitting just .246 with 8 HRs, 20 RBIs and 6 SBs through a little more than one quarter of the 2025 season.  These numbers extrapolate to highly competitive totals but significantly below what the Cohen family had hoped Soto would bring to the table.  

As of late May, the Mets are struggling far more with their ability to score runs than they are with preventing other teams from scoring against them.  The Mets now find themselves looking up at first place, trailing by a half game where once they were atop the NL East. 

So the question for Mets fans is whether Juan Soto’s arrival in New York has been a long term disappointment and a waste of club funds, or is he simply finding his way into the player he’s always been while absorbing the pressure of the gargantuan contract?  Will he adjust and deliver for the Mets as Carlos Beltran did from year two onward?  

I’d think that’s a fairly safe bet but fans are impatient from their position on top of the world when he was signed to the minor amount of dread they feel when he appears in the batter’s box as the numbers delivered are a far cry from what they’d envisioned.  

24 comments:

Mack Ade said...

IMO...

The only people winning the Soto wars right now are the beat pool writers. They are paid for clicks and, boy, does shite like this work for readers.

Have you ever been in a clubhouse after a three game loss drops you out of first place?

By the time the gaggle is let in, you can hear a pin drop.

NO ONE looks or sounds like a rah rah team player. All they want to do is shower, poop, dress, and head out.

but noooooooooooooooo.... the reporters write that only Soto is sullen and quiet and a suck teammate.

Folks, you're drinkin the Kool Aid here.

He's 26. He just lost a series to his old team. In their house. And his well struck hits are finding gloves instead of grass or seats.

Take it from ole Mack... Everything will be fine here.

Tom Brennan said...

Soto is hitting like Jesse Winker would have, except he has been out.

In fairness, he has hit in some hard luck, but still seems alll too human. His BABIP is ridiculously low at .261, proving that point. Keep in mind that after the Nats dealt him to SD, in 52 games in 2022, he hit a similar .236/.388/.390. His short season BABIP for SD? .261, of course.

The next full year, a much improved .275/.410/.519. His first 52 Mets games are nearly up. Then it’s time to hit like the real Juan Soto.

Mack Ade said...

So

9am today

My post on my trip to NEW YAWK CITY

Miss it and you lose

Mack Ade said...

could cause a 4th loss if you don't come back at 9

Anonymous said...

Need another bat, Mauricio? How about. Mullins from O’s? A trade for Devers?

Paul Articulates said...

Fans don't care about BABIP, they want to see their players give it everything they have. For whatever reason, ego, depression, doubt, injury, Soto has not given it his all. Poor leadership for those in the clubhouse not endowed with big contracts. He better get his act together quickly or the fans will turn on him. None of this helps the team.

Mack Ade said...

Paul

LAST 10 GAMES - SOTO

.254 BA
.392 OBP
.542 SLG
.934 OPS
3 HR
9 BB

No one writes about this

royhobbs7 said...

When Mauricio is ready and he'll be ready by June 2nd, he needs to be brought up to THE SHOW! Mauricio should be playing everyday @ DH (to minimize injury possibility) and a few days per week in the field. He will provide the bat we need at the tail end of the lineup. Moreover, we will hopefully be JETT-ING in CF after ASB. Jett Williams will provide an additional bat and speed towards the bottom-of-the-lineup as well.
We need the aforementioned bats to supplement the top of the lineup. I,e., given the present lineup, when Lindor, Soto, Alonso & Nimmo don't hit, we don't score!!!! Hitting slots 5-9 in the lineup produce ca-ca!!!

royhobbs7 said...

And as Mack noted, Soto will hit. It's just a matter of when. Hopefully, we'll make the playoffs, and should Soto blast off then, this early season funk will all but be forgiven and forgotten.

Mack Ade said...

Roy

He thinks a glove is a fly swatter

Mack Ade said...

My point is his worse right now is still good and highly ranked on this in most offensive categories

Jon G said...

Mauricio has had like 10 at bats in AAA. Yes, he had a good game the other night, but he needs more time. Plus he stinks in the field, so very much like Vientos

JoeP said...

Putting too much faith in Mauricio. He will need to earn his way back. I don't really see him as much of an upgrade for Baty/Vientos. He can't field and we already have about 6 DH's.

Mack Ade said...

Much worse than Mark

Viper said...

I am not surprised by Soto's performance so far. As Reese pointed out, Beltran had a bad first year with the Mets as well.
You can probably say the same with Lindor who was much better on his second year.

Baty is a much better 3B than Vientos. Let him stay at 3B and Vientos can DH. How quickly things change in one year.

We as fans have to ride this difficult period because right now, these Mets are as exciting as watching my daughters cat vomit hair balls.

royhobbs7 said...

Through 49 games, (not including Winker and Torrens) slots 5-9 in the lineup have hit a collective .223 with 69 RBIs in 683 ABs. And McNeil is the only hitter of the following: (McNeil, Baty, Vientos, Acuna, Alvarez, Marte & Taylor) with an OPS over .700.

That's not too good!!!

royhobbs7 said...

At least Maurico provides some 90 MPH+ batted balls (unlike the aforementioned who have been pathetic). Vientos should not play every day until he gets his MOJO back. And Baty (although has hit in spurts) also strikes out too much. Mauricio has an electric bat. Neither of the aforementioned provide that!!!

royhobbs7 said...

None of the 6 DHs even have a .700 OPS. You can take them all to the dump right now. Yes, Vientos will hit. But right now, he's hardly contributing at all.

royhobbs7 said...

5-9 went 2 for 15 last night (and not better over the past 5 games!). Vientos' (and I like Mark a lot!) SLUG is .382. That is an invitation to sit for awhile!!!

Tom Brennan said...

Royhobbs, you've hit on it. Make sure to read my 9 AM tomorrow.

Tom Brennan said...

There is a huge opportunity for Gilbert and Ronny Mo if they get hot here. The Mets offense roster is vulnerable to rotation of talent.

Tom Brennan said...

I am willing to keep an open mind on Mauricio's defense. When he was a Met in 2023, he played about 25 games with (remarkably) just one error. This year, not a lot of innings in the field yet, but no errors. Maybe he has realized this has been a flawed area and really worked to improve it.

Paul Articulates said...

Nice numbers for a guy not trying. Wonder what they would be like if he did.

JoeP said...

Roy, I totally agree about dumping them all. But we have to have someone to replace them. If Mauricio steps up and takes the bull by their horns, as a Met fan I would be delighted.