Morning.
We all write, either through content or
comments, how thrilled we are with the current depth in the system.
I think it is time I take a deep dive
into each position and deal up my opinion on where this position is going.
First up, is a position we are all
concerned about because the team could be losing, at the end of this season,
the All-Star that currently plays there...
First Base
Current player: Really, only have one on the parent team
right now and, thank God, it's a great one.
Pete Alonso is an all-star that
stands a good chance of becoming, by the end of this season, the all-time Mets
leader in homers. That's all-time, like in ALL TIME!
I really have no idea who would play
there if he went down from an injury. Maybe Mark Vientos, or Brett Baty, or Ronny Mauricio (down the road), or Jesse Winker (when healed), or Jared Young. Whoever, it would be a
big loss this season.
The other looming issue here is he, and
his agent, could decide to opt out and not return in 2026.
Will he? Well, based on his top 5 free
agent ranking come the off-season, and the kind if money being thrown around
these days, my guess is Pete is a goner.
So, since this is me writing about what
I think… there really is no high caliber first baseman on this team next
season.
I mentioned five players earlier… could
any of them become the starter here? Well, Winker is a free agent at the end of
this season and can’t seem to hit consistently when he ain’t, so, other than
that… . That leaves Vientos, Baty, Young, or Mauricio. None of them jump off
the page for me as a future starting first baseman.
After that, I really have only one
potential RED prospect… current Rumble Pony Ryan Clifford, but currently, he is
hitting below previous HR/AB numbers and his BA isn’t above .230. At his best,
he’s a year away.
There are a couple of interesting BLUE prospects I Brooklyn (Estarling Mercado) and St. Lucie (Trace Whillhoite), but they are way
away. One more to consider… a 33/year old, with a lifetime MLB batting average
of .274 (1,114-AB, 29-HR), and is currently hitting around the same range with
a slugging percentage below .500. The name? Joey Meneses. Me? Nah.
That means I have to go outside the
organization to wet my whistle. Enter, free agency.
Candidates would be:
Munetaka Murakami – Toyko Yakult Swallows
25/year old also plays 3B/OF LHH
Known for “prodigious power”. 242-HR over 8-seasons
Has hit at least 30 home runs per season
for five straight seasons
Career slash line of .273/.395/.544
(projects to MLB: .240-.260 BA,
30- home runs per)
Won the Japanese Triple Crown in 2022
Josh Naylor – Arizona Diamondbacks
27/years old LHH
OPS+
127 6.0-WAR
2024:
31-HR, 108-RBI
Warning: Below average fielder
Paul Goldschmidt – New York Yankees
37 years old I’m done here.
Rhys Hoskins – Milwaukee Brewers
1B/DH
32/years old RHH Career: 12.2-WAR
$18mil mutual option
Excellent slash line this season
8-season average – 34-HR, 99-RBI,
122-OPS+
Past that? Steak knives.
Me? Well, Murakami looks intriguing, but
he still needs to decide if he wants to
go stateside. I’m not sure if any of the west coast teams need a first baseman,
but I know the Yankees and Red Sox do. Both these teams would obviously be
looking at Alonso, but the loser here could be the team that signs the Japanese
slugger. I would go after this guy, but I would go all in with Naylor. I would
also offer Pete a4 year deal, with a 5th year option, but I just know
some team (cough Yanks cough) is going to throw silly money at Scott Boras.
My choice:
Naylor for 7-years.
Juan Soto
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6380596/2025/05/25/mets-juan-soto-david-peterson/
Despite subpar overall numbers by his standards, Soto’s
underlying data insists his season should look different. Per Baseball Savant,
Soto owned the fifth-largest difference in MLB between his slugging percentage
(.418) and his expected slugging percentage (.571). That’s largely because he
ranks in the top 5 percent for his hard-hit rate and his average exit velocity.
Routinely, he smokes balls without a reward.
“I just call it baseball,” Soto said. “It’s gonna happen.
Sometimes, you’re going to hit it hard, and you’re going to hit it right in
front of people. You’ve got to keep moving forward.”
On Saturday, Soto’s four batted balls ranked in the top 10 of
the game’s highest exit velocity readings: 108.3 mph (double), 102.5 mph (fly
out), 102.4 mph (fly out), 102.2 mph (single). His double snapped a streak of
11 games without an extra-base hit, which was the second-longest such streak of
his career.
“This guy’s been very unlucky,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza
said. “It was good to see him finally get the results.”
Good timing, too. Among the 92 players who logged at least 50
plate appearances with runners in scoring position heading into Saturday’s
slate of games, Soto ranked last in batting average (.119) in that situation.
Juan Soto - ‘I feel comfortable’
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6378834/2025/05/23/mets-juan-soto-batting-third/
A three-hour-plus flight
from St. Louis to Phoenix two weeks ago provided New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza with
an opportunity to discuss a batting order change with star Juan Soto.
The Mets had just lost both
games of a doubleheader. Their lineup wasn’t looking deep; the bottom half of
the batting order wasn’t contributing enough. So Mendoza wanted to float an
idea by Soto.
Instead of batting second,
what do you think of third?
Soto never asked Mendoza
why. Never protested. Never raised an eyebrow or shot an incredulous look.
“Whenever you want to do
it,” Soto told Mendoza, per the manager’s recollection, “let’s do it.”
Mendoza informed Soto he had
no interest in making the switch in Arizona. At that point, Mendoza simply
wanted Soto’s take on the matter.
“I don’t mind,” Soto said in
an interview before Friday’s game. “I think I’m already used to it. I don’t
mind hitting second or third. I feel comfortable in either spot.”
Would the
Pirates trade Paul Skenes?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6376646/2025/05/23/pirates-paul-skenes-trade-mlb-notes/
Think
about it: What would even be a fair return for Skenes?
In 2022,
outfielder Juan Soto was under club control for
three pennant races when he and first baseman Josh Bell
brought the Washington Nationals a monstrous return from the San Diego
Padres: outfielder James Wood, left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ
Abrams; outfielder Robert Hassell III,
pitcher Jarlin Susana and first baseman Luke Voit.
Skenes is
under club control for five pennant races. To justify the move, the Pirates
would need to beat the return for Soto, and not by a little. Even if contenders
were willing to empty their farm systems for Skenes, as they almost certainly
would be, how many would even have enough talent to make a deal happen?
Skenes’
affordability only adds to his value. His current salary is $875,000. He will
be pre-arbitration again next season. And even in arbitration, no pitcher
outside of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has earned more than $20 million in
a single season. Skenes likely would need to win multiple Cy Young Awards to
establish new precedents. His surplus value, then, is likely to remain high
throughout the process.
Mack – So… what would be your package to the Pirates for Skenes?
Top Bat
Speed Decliners (2024 to 2025)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6373938/2025/05/22/fantasy-baseball-2025-player-outlook-bat-speed/
As for
his teammates, Francisco Lindor has also been
making more contact with less power this year. Even with the bat speed drop,
he’s still doing what you paid for, and I expect that to continue.
Top 50 potential MLB free agents for
2025-26 offseason:
Edwin Díaz, RHP, Mets (opt out)
Age: 31
SV: 10
IP: 18 SO: 26
ERA+: 131
Career
WAR: 11.0
Díaz has
converted all 10 of his save opportunities this season. He’s averaging 13.0
strikeouts per nine innings and 4.0 walks per nine. He has 235 saves and a 3.00
ERA over his nine-year career. Díaz holds $18.5 million player options for 2026
and 2027, and the Mets have a $20.4 million club option for 2028. If Díaz
continues to pitch at a high level this season, I expect him to opt out in
November to pursue a longer-term deal. The two-time All-Star remains one of the
best closers in the game.
Jim Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball
"I
was 'colored' until I was 14, a Negro until I was 21 and a black man ever
since."
Reggie Jackson
"I
go back to 1965 with Reggie, but I guess I don't go far enough back to remember
when he was shy."
Rick Monday
In the late 1970s, ABC had a "Monday Night Baseball" with Al Michaels, Howard Cosell and Bob Uecker. Michaels told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that they were doing a game in Houston when Uecker chided Cosell for saying something outrageous.
Cosell responded: "Ueck, you don't have to get so
truculent. You do know what truculent means?"
Uecker, without missing a beat, said: "Of course, Howard. If you had a truck and I
borrowed it, it would be a truck you lent."
14 comments:
I hope Stearns and Cohen can figure out a way to keep Pete. I guess facing up the Brinks truck for a second time is what it would take. I'm with you Mack, Naylor is the guy to go after if/when Pete leaves
Get Skenes? Probably McLean, Tong, Mauricio, Benge, and Reimer. They might want Jett instead of Reimer.
I have not ruled out Reimer at first base, but he will have to accelerate. Probably a year away. Or 2027.
Try the Japanese guy?
Naylor looks good, too.
Pete for 5 years, $125MM? $35, $30, $25, $20, $15. Age 31 thru 35. Build in easily reachable incentives to increase that.
Mack,
If the Mets feel that Pete and Diaz are the two players they need to keep, then make them a competitive offer today and get the deals done. Pete saw what free agency was like in 2024. Put an amount on the table and challenge the league to beat your offer. Yeah, I know it "ain't" that simple.
back up the Brinks truck
No to Naylor. The last thing we need is another chubby bad fielding position player. Offer Pete 5/150...that's it. If he doesn't want it...move on. Maybe 5th year would be option year.
Hopefully one of Baty, Vientos, Mauricio can handle the position. I don't want Naylor for 7 years.
Give 1/3 of that 🚚 to Naylor
If available, though I think the fan base would burn down their stadium if they traded him, it would be quite the big boat
I didn't have time to research if LAD, LAA, and the Padres are long term set at girst
Agents today refuse to negotiate their big ticket FAs until the season is ovrr
Vientos can be super aggressive at the plate to show that his bad early season start was a bump in the road. Otherwise, he will become a 300-400 AB per year guy. Those guys without speed and D don't earn big bucks eventually.
No aPete? Just sign Tucker.
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