MACK - Position Chain Analysis - SP pt. 3

 

Good morning

 

We are down to our last group of chain starters that I consider either a RED or BLUE prospect.

 

Matt Allan - A

24/years old.   RHP   6-3   225

Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, out of Seminole HS (FL).

Given a $2.5mil bonus (slot: $667,900).

Surgeries –

      May 2021  -  Tommy John Surgery (TJS) – partial tear of the UCL in elbow

      Jan 2022 –    Ulnar Transportation Surgery -to address nerve irritation

      Jan 2023 -    Revision Surgery – 2nd TJS

2019            -    Rk/A  -  6-G, 5-ST, 1-0, 2.61, 1.45, 10.1-IP, 5-BB, 14-K

2025 so far -    St. Lucie   -   6-ST, 0-1, 1.93, 1.28, 14-IP, 8-BB, 17-K

Last five outings –

      5-6    -   2-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 2-BB, 2-K,, 29-16

      4-30  -  2-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 3-K, 37/23

      4-24  -  2-IP, 1-H, 1-ER, 1-BB, 1-K, 27/19, FB: 96-97

      4-12  -  3.2-IP, 2-H, 0-R,M 0-BB, 3-K, 47/31, FB: 95.5, 89-91 Cutter

      4-6    -  2.2-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 2-BB, 5-K, 44/28

Repertoire –

    Fastball – mid-90s, T 95-97. Touched 99 in ST. Pre-injury grade: 70. Riding life

    Curve – best secondary pitch. Hi-70s, 12-6 break, tight spin. 60 grade. Best among 2019 draft class. Usus sparingly this year, Instead, focusing on fastball and cutter.

    Changeup – Plus offering. Mid-to-hi 80s

    Cutter – new addition

    Slider – less developed

I’m very impressed with what he has done so far during his return. Yes, he’s pitching at a level he should have departed years ago, but let’s give the young man a pat for hanging in there. The Mets are really kid gloving him with very limited pitch and inning counts. In fact, his pitch count seems to be regressing. 

Work is still needed on command to limit walks

I only see him finishing the year in Brooklyn.

ETA – who the heck knows.

 

Nate Dohm – A

22/years old    RHP    6-4    210

Drafted by the NYM in the 3^rd round of the 2024 draft, out of Mississippi State.

2025 is Dohm’s first professional season.

So far this season – St. Lucie:  6-ST, 2-2, 2.22,1.15 24.1-IP, 30-K

Last four outings –

       5-3   -   5.1-IP, 4-H, 0-ER, 2-BB, 6-K

      4/27 -  3.2-IP, 2-H, 0-ER, 3-BB, 5-K, 67/42, struggled with command

      4/22 -  4-IP, 4-H, 1-ER, 0-BB, 7-K, 97-FB, 59/48

      4/16 -  5-IP, 1-H, 0-ER, 7-K

                       THAT’S 1-ER IN LAST 18-IP

Repertoire –

    Four pitch repertoire –

    Fastball – 93-95, T97-98, above average ride. ¾ arm slot. 55 grade. Needs refinement

    Slider – best oferring. Mid-80s with sharp, 2-plane gyroscopic break. 55 grade. Produced + whiffs.

    Curve – hi-70s/low-80s. 11-5 break.50 grade. More depth than slider.

    Changeup – mid-to-high 80s. Least developed pitch. 40 grade.

Dohm is another of those 2025 pleasant surprises. His strengths are his mechanical consistency and strike-throwing ability. Weakness is his health and secondary pitch development. Needs to particularly develop a better changeup. Lab work has been on fastball development. Projected as a mid to low rotation piece.

I expect him to be promoted to Brooklyn very soon.

ETA - 2027

 

Wil Watson – A

22/years old    RHP   6-1   180

Drafted by the NYM in the 7^th round of last year’s draft, out of USC (CA)

2024 – St. Lucie:    2-apps, 1-0, 3.38, 0.75, 2.2-IP, 0-BB, 3-K

So far this season  -  St. Lucie:   5-G, 3-ST, 0-1, 2.89, 1.12, 18.2-IP, 7-BB, 22-K

Last two outings –

       5/2  -    2-IP, 3-H, 3-ER, 4-BB, 2-K, 60/30

      4/25 -   4.0-IP, 3-H, 2-ER, 1-BB, 7-K, 53/36

Repertoire –

Three primary pitches:

Fastball – low-to-mid 90s, T-97.  Flat vertical break. Highly effective. Average 2,300 RPM with up to 22” induced vertical break. Considered elite.

Slider – mid-80s with sweepy break. Best secondary pitch. Compliments fastball.

Changeup – low-80s showing occasional flashes of potential. Less developed than slider, but adds depth to limited arsenal.

Throws from a ¾ arm slot with leg kick and long arm action. Another of the Stearns-finds. No rush needed so there is a good chance he could finish at this level this season.

Did not have a great outing last time out, but we all suck sometimes, right. Overall numbers holding up, especially WHIP. Will probably finish the season in Brooklyn.

ETA – earlier 2027

 

Raimon Gomez – A

23/years old    RHP    6-2    225

2021 IFA at 19/years old – led to only $10K signing bonus

2023  -  3-ST, 0-0, 6.43, 1.88, 7-IP, 9-BB, 12-K – SHUT DOWN – TJS

2024  -  out for season – TJS

Converted to starter for 2025.

So far this season -   5-G, 2-0, 11.2-IP, 16-K, 0-77, 1.20

Last outing –

       5-6  -  (relief role)   2-IP, 0-H, 0-ER, 1-BB, 2-K, 0.77, FB: 103.5

      5/1  -    2-IP, 3-H, 1-ER, 1-BB, 5-K (0.93) – 104-FB

      4/26 – 3.0-IP, 0-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 4-K, 104.5-FB (THE FASTEST BALL THROWN IN   BASEBALL THIS SEASON)

Repertoire –

4-seam FB – sits 96-98, hits 100-104.5. Good riding life. 70 grade due to velicity and movement.

2-seam fastball – new addition. Used sparingly and limited repots on velocity.

Slider – high-80s power slider with + potential. 60 Grade. Best secondary pitch. Very sharp break. Key strikeout weapon.

Changeup – thrown sparingly. Not developed yet and lacks consistency.

Cutter – low-90s. Less refined. 30-40 grade.

Came into this season not ranked in the top 30 Mets prospects. Control remains below average. Violent delivery and injury history suggests future as a reliever. It’s all fastball here… averaging 100.9 so far in 2025.

Last outing was as a reliever. The Mets can't seem to decide what role Raimon is going to play in, going forward,

ETA – my guess, if they don’t reel him back, a future regular for the mash unit. If they do, he could shoot up the pen rosters and be ready latest opening day 2027.

 

Jose Guevara – FCL

20/years old.  2023 IFA - no bonus info available

2024 was first professional season

    DSL   -   10-ST, 3-2, 1.64, 0.84, 44-IP, 12-BB, 52-K

                         (member of DSL All-star team)

2025 – one outing so far:

    5-3  -  1-ST, 0-1, 15.43, 2.1-IP, 4-H, 4-ER, 1-BB, 5-K

Repertoire –

Fastball – low-to-mid 90s. Primary pitch. Projected increased velocity over time and age,

Curve – in development stage. No info available.

Changeup – presumed in his mix

Very little information comes out of the DSL system. Most pitchers rely on their fastballs here and develop other pitchers in camp. Saturday’s first start was a forgetful one. Hopefully he rebounds. He is the Mets top prospect in both DSL teams this season.

ETA – obviously, too early to determine.

 

***LATE ADDITION***

Felipe De La Cruz – AAA

23/year old    LHSP    6-0    180    2021 IFA (“modest bonus”)

5 minor league seasons –            9-23, 3.95, 1.32, 314.2-IP, 375-K

2025 – Binghamton –   4-G, 2-ST, 0-1, 1.98, 1.02,  13.2-IP, 3-BB, 20-K

2025 -  Syracuse    – 2-G, 1-ST, 0-0, 0.00, 0.26, 7.2-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 1-BB, 11-K

Last outing was a one inning scoreless inning to end the game.

Throws from high-3/4 arm slot. High strikeout rate and improved command.

Arsenal –

Sinker – sits 94-97, T-98. Flat vertical angle that generates whiffs and weak contact. Used around 60% of time.

Slider – low/mid 80s (85-87) with gyroscopic break. Averages 2250 RPM. 56 whiffs on 150 swings in 2023. Used around 30% of time. Above average pitch.

Changeup – 86-89 with 8.8” horizontal movement and 23.1” induced vertical break. Less effective. High exit velocities and batting average against with this pitch. Used around 10% of time and only to mix up batter. The problem is this pitch doesn’t mix them up, it charges them up.

Weakness would be small frame that raises durability questions. Changeup definitely needs time in the lab.

Me?

Frankly, I didn’t have this guy on my radar. Seems the Mets don’t either since he is not on their top 30 prospect list. A lefty, with this kind of velo, could sure be used in the Mets bullpen. It will be interesting if he remains in the Syracuse rotation, or gets bumped upstairs after a few more outings of innings building. 

LuisAngel Acuna

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6336179/2025/05/06/mets-luisangel-acuna-prospects/

Question - Do you think Acuña will be the second baseman for the rest of the season? — Jbeningo1

Tim Britton: No, I don’t. That’s the short answer.

The longer answer is that Carlos Mendoza and the Mets already have a blueprint for how this could work as a time-share from last season, when Jeff McNeil and José Iglesias split time at the keystone. McNeil and Iglesias shared second over a 69-game stretch last season. It started in mid-June, by which point Iglesias had shown he was off to an excellent start offensively. And it continued until McNeil’s regular-season-ending injury in early September.

In that stretch, McNeil made 36 starts to Iglesias’ 33 at second base. Their versatility, though, permitted them to be in the lineup elsewhere: McNeil made 17 outfield starts and Iglesias 10 at third base.

We’re already seeing this play out now with McNeil and Acuña. In 11 games since McNeil’s return, Acuña has made seven starts and McNeil four at second base. Acuña has also played third once, and McNeil the outfield four times. The injury to Jesse Winker does suggest more outfield time for McNeil is coming, but I don’t think Acuña will be the everyday second baseman that entire time.

 

Brandon Sproat

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6336179/2025/05/06/mets-luisangel-acuna-prospects/

Why hasn’t Brandon Sproat gotten any of the depth starter spot starts? — Sam G.

Will Sammon: There are a few reasons. The pitchers chosen ahead of him outperformed him. The opening in the rotation didn’t correspond well with his next start date. And he’s been inconsistent. While Sproat has dominated previous levels, he has struggled in Triple A at times. He has a 5.48 ERA (23 innings). Unlike Blade Tidwell, who also had a high ERA but strong walk and strikeout rates, Sproat has 12 walks and 17 strikeouts. The stuff remains exciting. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Sproat switch up his usage and lean more on his secondary pitches.

What Makes a Good Fastball? –

Thomas Nestico  @tjstats

There are a lot of aspects that make up a fastball. Most importantly is its velocity. As we work through each grade, we will see that as velocity increases, the lower bound of its grade range increases. Another factor that is important to fastballs is its movement. 4-Seam fastballs are typically characterized by their high backspin which induces positive vertical break. This means that fastballs “defy” gravity as they drop less than if no spin was imparted on the ball. Generally, higher induced vertical break (iVB) is desirable, but the consideration of factors like release height and arm angle add more nuance to the discussion. I will provide examples of the interactions between these variables and what makes them favourable or not. Horizontal break is also important as it can disrupt a batter’s expectations. The final factor that I consider essential is extension. Extension is simply the distance down the mound that a pitcher releases the pitch. Higer extension is desirable because it increases the perceived velocity of the fastball due to the shorter distance the ball requires to get to the plate.

Pete Alonso is on another level

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6333745/2025/05/05/mets-pete-alonso-rotation/

Alonso was justifiably named the National League Player of the Month for April after delivering the finest month of his career. This was a version of Alonso the Mets hadn’t seen at all the last two seasons, and he’s made a hot streak that would feel good for a week last for a full month.

Alonso will slow down at some point (I think), but that April performance meant a lot to some of the other hitters in the lineup who have yet to hit their stride. Alonso’s consistency in coming through meant fewer nights when the spotlight fell on a Juan Soto or Brandon Nimmo or someone deeper in the lineup.

Tylor Megill

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6330506/2025/05/03/mets-tylor-megill-tough-love/

Tylor Megill was rolling along in a recent start until he committed the kind of mistake that the best pitchers just don’t make. He started an inning by hitting a batter with his first pitch of the at-bat. Upon returning to the dugout, Megill heard the criticism.

With a direct tone after the inning, New York Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told him, “That’s not what aces do.”

It was just the message Megill wanted to hear.

In spring training, Megill instructed Hefner, who typically carries a calming disposition, to show some tough love.

“If I was pitching like s—,” Megill said, “I wanted him to yell at me.”

Nobody is screaming at Megill. He brings a sparkling 1.74 ERA (six starts, 31 innings) into his outing Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings, Megill ranks among MLB’s top 20 in ERA, strikeouts-minus-walks rate (20.6 percent), batting average against (.197) and fWAR (1.2).

MLB made a change that players say shrank the strike zone — and caught them by surprise

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6328105/2025/05/01/mlb-umpire-strike-zone-buffer-zone-change/

In the winter, Major League Baseball negotiated a seemingly simple change in how home-plate umpires are graded and evaluated. But now, a month into the season, its impact on balls and strikes has players asking questions about what they believe is a tightened strike zone — and searching for ways to adjust to a new wrinkle they say caught them by surprise.

That change, which was part of a new labor agreement with the Major League Umpires Association, significantly decreased the margin of error for umpires in their evaluations — and has resulted in fewer called strikes off the edges of the plate through the same point as last season.

“Everybody’s zone has shrunk,” Angels catcher Travis d’Arnaud told The Athletic. “Every (umpire) across the league.”

The actual number of pitches affected is relatively small. But the reaction — from pitchers, catchers, pitching coaches and analytics-driven front offices — has been anything but. They say the shift in how balls and strikes are now called is already having an impact on game-planning, pitch sequencing, pitch framing techniques, evaluation models and even roster construction.

Picking April MLB All-Star

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6325707/2025/05/01/mlb-april-all-star-teams/

Shortstop — Francisco Lindor, Mets

Soto is the highest-paid Met and Alonso has the most power on the team, but Lindor is the face of the franchise and its most important leader. He’s off to a strong start, hitting .308 with a 143 OPS+. He continues to mash fastballs, batting .343 against them with four of his six home runs coming versus the pitch